Patrick Patterson

Patrick Patterson’s projections vary depending on who you talk to, but a situational analysis supports him as an immediate contributor who could be worth taking in the lottery.

Ranking right around average with a usage of 12.3 possessions per-game, Patterson ranks first amongst all power forward prospects at 1.139 PPP overall. The only player with a higher overall PPP in our 2010 draft rankings is Syracuse center Arinze Onuaku. On top of his excellent efficiency, Patterson turned the ball over on just 8.3% of his possessions, the second lowest mark in our rankings.

From a situation specific perspective, Patterson was one of the more versatile forwards on the list. He received some 18% of his total offense in spot-up situations (3rd), 16% in transition (2nd), and 15.4% from offensive rebounds (8th). The impact of Kentucky’s freshman on Patterson’s role is clear in the decline we see in his opportunities to create his own shot. After receiving 35.8% of his possessions in the post last season, he got to go one-on-one on the block just 18% of the time this year. Despite that drop in usage, he led our sample with 65% shooting in the post.

Patterson is capable of contributing on the next level in a number of ways, as his tools give him the ability to score in all sorts of set plays. His 0.894 PPP in jump shooting situations ranks above average, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Patterson continue to make progress in that part of the game. Around the rim he ranks above average at 1.368 PPP. Couple his ability to score from multiple areas, with his excellent intangibles, team-first mentality, and athleticism, and Patterson seems like a very safe pick for a team looking to compete next season.

Patrick Patterson looks pretty solid at the power forward position, standing 6-9 and change in shoes, with a 7-1 ¼ wingspan. Combine that with his outstanding interviews in Chicago (some teams called him the most impressive interview of anyone in this class) and he seems to be doing quite well at the moment.

Jonathan Givony

A likely first round pick last year, Patrick Patterson returned to Kentucky to finish his degree and try to finally make an NCAA tournament appearance, something that had escaped him under Billy Gillespie’s reign. The clear-cut go-to guy of his team leading into this year, he’s been forced to take a backseat to super freshmen DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall upon his return to Kentucky, now being led by a new coach in John Calipari. After two very disappointing seasons in Lexington, Patterson has responded extremely well to his new role on arguably the top team in college basketball, emerging as their steady veteran leader and all-around super-efficient glue-guy, which suits both his personality and style of play.

Continuing where we left off with the last of the 10 scouting report entries written on Patterson on this site since his days as a high school standout, the most notable development to point out clearly revolves around his jump-shot. Attempting only 19 mid or long-range jump-shots last season according to Synergy Sports Technology, Patterson has more than tripled that figure already (with plenty more games to go), and is even more impressively knocking down an excellent 47% of his attempts.

Patterson has become a very legitimate perimeter shooting option as his 41% 3-point conversion rate would indicate, which is a very significant development considering the role most power forwards are asked to play in today’s NBA. Patterson sports smooth, consistent mechanics with his flat-footed shooting stroke, even if he’s almost strictly a wide-open, catch and shoot type with his feet set, as he’s yet to hit a single off the dribble jumper on the season according to SST. Oddly enough, Patterson’s free throw percentage dropped from an outstanding 77% last year to just 65% this season.

Never one to shy away from using his outstanding body in the paint, Patterson continues to rank as one of the most efficient players in college basketball in both post-up situations and finishing looks created for him around the basket, as evidenced by the 62% he shoots from 2-point range. Slightly undersized, and not freakishly explosive, Patterson regardless has an excellent frame and a very nice wingspan (somewhere in the 7-2 range), which allows him to finish very well around the rim when taking his terrific hands and touch into consideration. He has a couple of very nice moves he can utilize with his back to the basket, most notably a good-looking jump-hook he goes to frequently over his left shoulder and can knock down with range out to 8-10 feet.

While not the most fluid or dynamic power forward you’ll find in this draft, Patterson has the smarts, fundamentals and aggressive mentality needed to take advantage of his excellent tools, something he may not always be able to show as much as he should due to the amount of weapons on this extremely talented Kentucky roster. He almost never turns the ball over (committing about one per game) and rarely takes a bad shot, understanding his role in Kentucky’s offense and executing it extremely well, even though he’s gradually been forced to defer more and more to ultra-talented freshman center DeMarcus Cousins, something you’ll never see him complain about.

Where Patterson needs to improve is with his ball-handling skills, as you rarely see him facing up from the perimeter, creating his own shot and taking his man off the dribble, being mostly relegated to straight-line drives with his right hand, looking somewhat of out control even on these simple and infrequent attempts.

Moving from the 5 to the 4 has had an effect on Patterson not just offensively, but also on the defensive end. Forced to spend more time guarding undersized forwards on the perimeter now, and asked to cover quite a bit of space in Calipari’s wide-ranging scheme, Patterson’s limitations in this area look a bit more glaring, although the experience he is garnering here will likely pay off down the road. Patterson seems to put a solid effort in on the perimeter, but his lateral quickness, average awareness and occasional hesitation to aggressively body up his matchup makes him a bit less effective than he should be.

In the post, Patterson suffers from some of the same issues, not always showing the best awareness and lacking a degree of physicality, but ultimately being fairly effective. His length, strength and athleticism are major assets at this level, and allow him to do a good job contesting his opponents’ shots, especially when he’s really dialed into the task.

One area where Patterson is bafflingly poor is on the defensive glass, ranking amongst the worst at his position in that category amongst likely draft prospects, which is disappointing to say the least. Patterson was quite a bit more effective in this area last season without DeMarcus Cousins (an absolute monster rebounder on both ends), while not forced to spend as much time out on the perimeter playing the center position.

Patterson was still very poor in this area as a freshman as well, so NBA teams may wonder about how good of a defensive rebounder he projects as at the next level. He doesn’t always play as tough as his chiseled body indicates he should, not boxing out that well and rarely going out of his area to come up with extra possessions. As an offensive rebounder he’s quite a bit more effective.

Despite the nitpicking, Patterson is the type of player NBA teams can comfortably project into a fairly significantly role as a productive, high character, role-playing power forward. Only turning 21 in a few days, there is still reason to believe that he can continue to improve on his weaknesses down the road, as he appears to be an intelligent and highly coachable player who is scheduled to graduate after just three years, which is quite a feat. Players like Patterson seem to do quite well in today’s NBA, and the fact that he comes in ready to produce and has terrific intangibles is only an added bonus.

Another player who really stands out with his ability to finish around the rim is Patrick Patterson, who converts 73% of his opportunities around the basket (4th best), on an outstanding 1.48 PPP (2nd best). Patterson's terrific length and athleticism, combined with his huge hands and tenacity made him quite a force at the college level--which also shows up in his ability to produce efficiently in transition and off basket cuts. His jump-shot, post-up game and ability to create his own shot appear to lack polish, though.

It has been an up and down year for Kentucky, as they are a handful of tough losses out of the top 25, but for Patrick Patterson, it has been a breakout season. Last year as a freshman, Patterson showed that he was one of the country’s best post players, though with much room to develop. This season, he has proven himself the most efficient post scorer in all of college basketball, not to mention, one of the nation’s most efficient players. The story behind the numbers, however, is somewhat more complex, which by no means invalidates Patterson as a prospect, but certainly calls into question various concerns that are still presented in his game.

For one, Patterson is only 6’8, which is an inch or two shorter than the prototypical NBA power forward. His reported 7’2 wingspan, good athleticism, and solid lateral quickness in the post help him compensate, as do the successes of undersized big men such as Paul Millsap, Carl Landry, and Leon Powe. This being said, his lack of ideal height is certainly worth noting. Otherwise, his physical profile is outstanding, as his frame is filling out nicely and he is using his body more effectively this year on both sides of the ball.

Offensively, Patterson is, by the numbers, the most efficient post scorer in all of college basketball, scoring 18.9 points per game and shooting an outlandish 70.9% from the field on 10.8 attempts per game. In fact, despite playing 3.9 less minutes per game this season, he is averaging 3 more points, 2 more rebounds, 1 more assist, and 0.4 less turnovers per game.

On film, Patterson looks quite good as well, showing better ball handling abilities, which have made his post moves look all the more impressive and allow him to move quicker on the blocks with the ball in his hands. He has proven to be an absolute force in the post on offense largely because of how hard he fights for position. Despite the athleticism or size of his defender, Patterson has had no problem getting the ball in the post and, once he receives the ball, he can rely on a variety of moves, most notably a jump hook, a turnaround jumper that he kisses off the glass, or a drop step that often results in an emphatic dunk in order to score.

His court sense has improved as well, and he moves much better without the ball. This allows him to catch lob passes and, without bringing the ball down, elevate for the easy basket. Similarly, he is passing the ball out of the post better and is a much better facilitator than he was a year ago, though he still sometimes tries to go one on three to the basket. He also is also improved on the offensive boards, showing the ability to sneak around his man to the basket to grab the rebound or slam the ball home.

The problem, still, is that Patterson almost exclusively drives right or uses his right hand, 90% of the time according to Synergy. His touch around the rim is superb, his footwork has improved, and he has started to develop an arsenal of solid and consistent offense on the blocks, but he absolutely must work on incorporating his left hand into his game.

Another area in which he must continue to improve is in diversifying his offensive game, namely proving that he can consistently knock down spot-up jumpers from mid-range. He has a quick and relatively fluid release and, though his release point should probably be higher, there is no reason why Patterson is not shooting the ball more often from mid-range. Considering his lack of size and the ways in which undersized power forwards have succeeded in the NBA, this is one of the most important improvements Patterson must make before taking the step to the next level.

Though he has made some improvements on the defensive end this season, Patterson still leaves something to be desired on this side of the floor. His awareness is not stellar, oftentimes falling behind on defensive rotations and losing his mark. He still has trouble closing out on perimeter oriented big men, which is a concern considering the nature of the power forward position at the next level. He has improved, however, as a shot blocker, not just statistically, but in terms of patience, as he bites for pump fakes less this year than he did one year ago. He is also very good defensive rebounder, showing solid fundamentals by boxing out on most possessions, which alongside his outstanding hands, bodes well for his rebounding at the next level.

Despite the fact that Patrick Patterson is one of the best post prospects in the collegiate ranks, he still has some improvements to make before he can consider himself a lock for success at the next level. Assuming he can develop accordingly, however, there is no reason to think that Patterson cannot successfully make the transition to the NBA and flourish. That is a somewhat significant assumption, however, and scouts will be focused on Patterson’s development throughout the rest of the season, particularly to see if he can continue his unbelievably efficient offensive onslaught and continue to improve his game on both ends of the floor. The early results look very promising thus far.

Few freshman played as big a role for their team as Patrick Patterson did for Kentucky last season. At a shade under 36 minutes per game, only O.J. Mayo and Donte Greene narrowly edged him out amongst the minutes played leader board for freshman in 07-08. That starts to give you an idea about the type of immediate impact Patterson was expected and able to make for the Big Blue, and very little of that is expected to change this upcoming season.

A substantial part of Kentucky’s offense last season revolved around throwing the ball inside to Patterson on the left block, and letting him go to work. He is a true back to the basket presence at the collegiate level, working very hard at establishing deep position inside and then possessing the strength, aggressiveness and girth to just bully his man about as far as he needs to to get his right-handed jump-hook shot or turnaround jumper off. At times he tends to settle for bad shots when he can’t get the type of deep post position he needs to get in his comfort zone, which doesn’t happen as often at the collegiate level as it will in the NBA.

Where Patterson is at his best is moving off the ball and cutting towards the rim for strong finishes around the basket. He has great hands, an outstanding frame, and the toughness and athleticism needed to finish most everything that comes his way. We’re talking about a very high energy player who gets to the free throw line at a nice rate and finishes a terrific 73.4% of his touches in the immediate basket area according to Synergy Sports Technology’s quantified reports.

Where Patterson needs to improve is in becoming more versatile offensively, relying less on the advantages he possesses in the strength and athleticism categories—which will not be as pronounced in the NBA—and increasing his already decent skill-level.

The soft touch on Patterson’s jumper shows lots of potential, but he can still expand his range and consistency. Facing the basket, he rarely puts the ball on the floor to beat his man to the basket, something which would make him more of a threat to operate in the high post. In the low-post, he clearly favors his right-hand even when he’d be much better off using his left hand.

As the level of competition increases, so does the level of advance scouting, and Patterson will need to be able to take what the defense gives him, which means rounding out his entire offensive game.

Defensively, Patterson is a bit undersized at around 6-8, but he makes up for that and then some with his tremendous 7-2 wingspan. He has the strength to contain his matchup in the post, the aggressiveness to not back down from anyone, and the length to contest most every attempt from the player he’s defending. He has the tools to be outstanding in this area, and indeed shows flashes of brilliance from time to time. The problem is that at times he seems to give up too much space in the paint and rely excessively on his physical tools rather than playing fundamentally sound basketball. This is most evident in the rebounding department, where Patterson makes a big impact on the offensive glass, but is surprisingly pedestrian on the defensive end. Doing a better job of boxing out his matchup would make him much more effective here most likely.

Big men with Patterson’s athleticism, length, motor and budding skill level almost always find their way into the NBA, in some capacity. The question is how much he’ll still improve from here, and what kind of role can be expected from him at the next level. As long as he stays healthy (his season was cut short last year with a broken foot), there’s a more than decent chance that this will be Patterson’s last year at Kentucky. How productive he is this season and how far he can help Kentucky get in the tournament will play a large part in how high he can elevate his draft stock.

Walking into a great deal of playing time, just like he wanted after navigating through an extended recruiting process, Patrick Patterson is one of the top scoring freshman in the country.

There’s a lot to like about Patrick Patterson as a collegiate player. He is athletic and intense, but it isn’t always polished and efficient with his movement on the court. Patterson relies on his athleticism more than his intelligence with in-game situations so far. He gets blocks and steals, but fouls at a high rate relative to these two hustle stats. His length and athleticism should make him a terrific defender in time as he learns how to read the floor better and use his body and feet to set up his opponent before they are into their move.

As it stands now, Patterson doesn't fight for position much and falls for the classic young forward flaw of trying to react to the shot. He gives opponents the spot they want too easily on the floor, and hasn't learned to get wide and press up underneath his man to effect their balance. Right now, he's mostly about slide stepping and staying in front of his assignment, while waiting for the move and the release. His awareness is poor and he struggles to make his presence felt when pulled out onto the perimeter on pick and roll plays.

Despite having great quickness, terrific hands and good reaction time, Patterson only ranks 14th out of the 19 freshmen PFs in our database in rebounding in 40 minutes pace adjusted. He is a very nice range-rebounder right now, but can be lazy when it comes to boxing out and carving space. Again, these are prototypical signs of a young big man who hasn't had to use more than his physical gifts to be productive.

Right now, Patterson stands mostly up-right and goes for the ball without much regard for his opponent. This is common for players who have always had the size, speed, and agility edge. It should be noted that Kentucky is not a great rebounding team, so Patterson is typically boarding against multiple opponents which depresses his overall numbers. His ability to stay extended and jump from his toes instead of his knees should make him a very solid rebounder on the pro level. His double and triple jump speed is very impressive, which combined with his length, make Patterson an excellent offensive rebound threat. Patterson doesn’t gather himself at all before going for the put-back and uses all of his length in addition to having a great sense of timing…this will be one of his best attributes going to the next level.

Patterson is an average passer, looking primarily focused on scoring first and making the rest of his decisions based off whether or not he feels he can get a quality shot off. While he is his team’s best low-post option, it’s easy to tell that Coach Billy Gillespie isn’t comfortable running much of the offense through Patterson at this point.

Despite standing just 6-8, an overwhelming majority of Patterson’s offensive game is with his back to the basket, so he’ll have a big adjustment to make before being effective offensively on the next level. His technique on the block isn’t spectacular, and certainly not progressive enough to compensate for his lack of prototypical size for the NBA game--at least not at this stage in his development. He avoids contact when going into his moves in the paint, instead electing to turn as quickly as possible and use his arm extension to get off his shot. Patterson doesn’t show much in the way of dynamic footwork in terms of drop-steps, reverse-pivots, or up-and-under moves. Without creating space via contact, and without mixing up his post moves, it’s easier for opponents to time his shot and challenge it effectively. He’s more of a play finisher than a play maker, and would really benefit from playing with a creative wing and/or point guard.

Patterson’s jump-shot shows the most promise for his offensive game on the next level, though it’s not a finished product by any means. Patterson leads with his right foot when shooting, but maintains consistency of motion on the shot fairly well. He doesn’t bring the ball down or bend too deeply at the knees when preparing to shoot, which allows him to get off a quick, uncontested shot with frequency. The shot is at full extension above his head and with a quick release, with mostly wrist-reminiscent of Marcus Campy, but with less arm wind-up behind the head. He’s not used much in pick-and-roll situations thus far at Kentucky, but will have to become more familiar with it in time. When he puts the ball on the floor from the high post and drives into traffic, Patterson looks pretty out of control, more likely to barrel into a defender for an offensive foul than he is to weave around him. Generally speaking, his basketball IQ is not off the charts, and it’s not rare to see him make one or two extremely questionable decisions every game, usually in the form of his shot-selection.

Overall, Patterson looks like a high energy role player at the next level, someone who can contribute offensively in a free flowing system when surrounded by playmakers. His hands are good, and his energy is high on the court, but he needs to play off of others to be effective. Patterson is clearly undersized for an NBA post player, although his wingspan looks excellent, but his versatility offensively and defensively isn’t at the level it needs to be just yet for an NBA role playing big. Patterson is very young, though, and has plenty of time to improve on the subtle elements of his game. As it stands now, he has been highly productive in his first year, and should probably be around for a couple more to maximize his draft potential.

Patrick started off the game in pretty non-descript fashion, but really started to impact the game as it went on, showing off his ability to finish low and his prowess on the boards. He was definitely the best rebounder in the game, showing the ability to track down long balls well with his athleticism and awareness, while also going up strong and battling for balls in the painted area, showing a pretty good feel for reading the bounces off the rim. He did most of his scoring around the rim and off putbacks, scoring on an assortment of lay-ups and jams in that fashion, though he also finished some lay-ups in transition.

Defensively, Patterson was active around the painted area, contesting and blocking shots that came towards him, including one impressive post block against Blake Griffin. Patterson has yet to decide where he will attend college, but he’s the type of gritty role-player that should be able to step in and make an impact anywhere, using his athleticism and tenacious motor to score around the rim, own the boards, and make some plays on the defensive end. He’d do himself well to continue to work on his post game and develop more of a mid-range jumper, which would expand the contributions he could make for his team.

Patterson was on the receiving end of several nasty dunks by the international team, but it was still a solid effort for the country’s top uncommitted freshman to be. Patterson came up with one emphatic block, displaying elite level explosiveness and the potential to slim down and end up even more athletic. He was a monster on the glass, and consistently displayed the ability to knock down the midrange jumper in the lane over the course of the week in practice. The one he hit in the game came off of an offensive rebound. Patterson runs the floor well, and should be able to fit in well in whatever kind of system he ends up playing in next year.

As a pro prospect, Patterson is obviously somewhat limited because of his size. The West Virginia product is most certainly locked in as a power forward, but has the wingspan and athletic power to make up for the lack of height to a certain extent. He isn’t an accomplished back to the basket scorer at the moment, more content to make an impact beating people up around the basket and at the rim. He doesn’t have the rock solid look of Beasley, but his combination of bulk and explosiveness are second to none in this class. He should be a phenomenal D1-level rebounder from day one, and is more than capable of playing in the NBA someday.

2007-2008 Outlook: It is hard to speculate much on Patterson’s impact before he picks a school, but he certainly has come up with a worthy list. He could be the recruit that Billy Gillispie uses to take Kentucky back to the pinnacle of college basketball, or he could help Billy Donovan keep Florida at the top. Even Duke is an ideal situation, with the frontcourt rotation lacking a powerful presence such as Patterson.

Patrick Patterson did his share of bruising around the rim, owning the boards on both ends of the court and getting a few putbacks on both slams and touch lay-ups, though he wasn’t really featured in the game, getting less than a handful of post-up attempts. He had one really nice post move in which he went into his man strong and then faded away after the contact, scoring off the glass and drawing the foul, but he traveled trying to back his man down on another attempt down low.

Of course, this would all be predicated on fellow Hoop Summit participant Patrick Patterson following the expected course of action and heading somewhere other than Duke. The Huntington (WV) physical specimen was tight-lipped on any sort of college decision, only stating that he continues to list six schools, with the idea of cutting his list down to three very soon and eventually announcing his decision on May 1. Patterson is built like a tank yet still explosive enough to keep up with Michael Beasley up and down the court. His main offensive weapon at the moment is probably his jumper in the lane, but he has the tools to develop into a phenomenal college player. The common train of thought is that a Billy Donovan-coached Florida leads the pack, but that idea isn’t being pried from Patterson’s lips. If he did head elsewhere, Duke might be a logical destination considering the recent decision of Josh McRoberts to head pro and the Blue Devils’ need for a traditional power forward.

After two lackluster performances, Patterson really stepped it up on Tuesday. He used his strength and length to score inside, doing all of the little things that coaches dream of from a big man. Not only did he rebound well, but he was able to block a few scoring attempts by athletic counterparts J.J. Hickson and Gani Lawal. It was great to see Patterson get back on track after struggling early on, and it will be interesting to see where the physically imposing big man lands once UK announces their next head coach.

Patterson struggled a bit for the second day in a row, seemingly unable to find a rhythm against the athletic and long duo of Gani Lawal and J.J. Hickson. He struggled shooting the ball facing the basket, and wasn’t able to use his bullish force inside like he usually does. It appears that Patrick will be starting the game for the East squad, so he will have plenty of opportunity to prove himself against Michael Beasley and Kevin Love.