ACC Preview Part 3: National Elite (1-4)

For the most part, this doesn’t appear to be a typical ACC season in terms of experience or competitiveness. There are only four likely NCAA Tournament teams, with a large group likely fighting it out for the one or two remaining dance tickets. But at the top, the ACC remains the elite college basketball force it always has been. Duke and North Carolina have been playing out their regional turf wars on a national stage for what seems like eternity, and that isn’t going to change in 06-07. The NCAA’s two premier programs should finish atop the conference and the national polls yet again. Boston College was a hit in its first ACC run, and represents the opposite of everything Tobacco Road. Instead of glamour recruits, magazine covers and media exposé’s to keep everybody occupied, Al Skinner just targets the right under-the-radar players, develops them, and wins games at an elite level. But the Eagles will face stiff competition for third place from Paul Hewitt’s Yellow Jackets, who will feature two of the nation’s truly elite basketball prospects and a solid core of returnees who now have a better idea of what it will take to succeed in the ACC.

ACC Preview, Part One (10-12)

ACC Preview, Part Two (5-9)


North Carolina

05-06 Record: 23-8 (12-4)
Coach: Roy Williams (75-23 in 3 years at North Carolina; 493-124 overall)
Postseason: NCAA 2nd Round (def Murray State 69-65, def by George Mason 65-60)

2006 Season Review:

Roy Williams got his elusive championship, but his detractors wouldn’t give up that easily. “Anybody could have led that team to a title,” they quipped. Another classic line was the “let’s see him to do it with his own players” excuse. Yours truly made the idiotic decision to rank last year’s Heels near the bottom of the ACC based on a line of reasoning centered around stupid quote A. This question goes out to all the doubters: Are you satisfied? Despite virtually no experience returning and so much lost early-entry talent that Felton, McCants, Williams and May could have been divided between two middle of the pack ACC teams and both squads would have projected as Final Four contenders at the beginning of the year, Williams found a way to win. He used a former walk-on at shooting guard, and a junior with no playing experience at the power forward. There was a true freshman playing the role of go-to guy, and three other newcomers playing vital roles. The end of the season must have been a nice treat, as the North Carolina crashed the going out party of four Blue Devil seniors that had caused Tar Heel nation so much grief in recent seasons. Tyler Hansbrough outplayed Shelden Williams that night, ripping the “premier ACC big man” torch out of the senior’s hand before it could be passed on in a respectable manner.

Yeah, Roy Williams isn’t being asked too many questions this preseason. His success in getting his youngsters in shape, molding them into a team unit on both ends of the floor, and just pushing the pedal to the metal made the various national Coach of the Year honors a mere formality. The second round loss against George Mason was disappointing, but it shouldn’t take away anything from what Williams accomplished. In the process of solidifying his status as an elite coach in the annals of college hoops, he let loose the ACC’s next mega-star and landed one of the greatest recruiting classes since folks started caring about things like recruiting classes. The only thing sweeter than last year’s remarkable turn of events would be another opportunity to cut down the nets as the last team left standing in 2007.

Roster (* denotes 05-06 starter; ** denotes projected 06-07 starter)
Players on scholarship: 13

Key Losses:
*F David Noel, sr (12.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 3.5 apg in 33.7 mpg)
PF Byron Sanders, sr (2.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg in 12.2 mpg)

Returnees: (8)

6’3 PG Quentin Thomas, jr (2.3 ppg, 2.8 apg in 12.0 mpg)
*6’3 CG Bobby Frasor, so (6.4 ppg, 4.4 apg in 27.5 mpg)**
6’5 SG Marcus Ginyard, so (6.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg in 19.1 mpg)
*5’11 SG Wes Miller, sr walk-on (7.2 ppg, 1.1 spg, 44.1 3fg% in 22.9 mpg)
6’5 G/F Danny Green, so (7.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg in 15.3 mpg)
*6’8 SF Reyshawn Terry, sr (14.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg in 24.2 mpg)**
*6’9 PF Tyler Hansbrough, so (18.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg in 30.4 mpg)**
6’7 PF Mike Copeland, so (2.9 mpg in 16 games)

Starters: 4
Rotation Players: 7
Redshirts: 0
Sophomores: 5
Juniors: 1
Seniors: 2
05-06 Starts: 121 (2nd in ACC)
Career Starts: 74 (10th in ACC)
Scoring: 80.2%
Rebounding: 76.2%

Newcomers: (4)
5’11 PG Ty Lawson, Clinton MD via Oak Hill (VA) Academy (Scout.com 5-star, 5th nationally)**
6’4 SG Wayne Ellington, Wynnewood, PA (Scout.com 5-star, 7th nationally)**
6’6 SF William Graves, Greensboro, NC (Scout.com 4-star, 79th nationally)
6’9 PF Brandan Wright, Nashville TN (Scout.com 5-star, 3rd nationally)
6’9 C Alex Stepheson, Los Angeles CA (Scout.com 4-star, 55th nationally)
6’8 C Deon Thompson, Torrance, CA (Scout.com 4-star, 36th nationally)
ACC Recruiting Class rank: 1st

Schedule Analysis
http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/sched/unc-m-baskbl-sched.html

Non-Conference highlights:

North Carolina is the overwhelming favorite to win the NIT Tip-Off, where the top competition will come from Winthrop, Gonzaga, and Tennessee. Other notables with a chance to make some noise are Baylor, Rice, Notre Dame, Indiana, and Fordham. Then there is the high-profile matchup against Ohio State in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, a return date in Chapel Hill against Kentucky, a potentially nasty game at Saint Louis, and home games against Rutgers, Dayton, and Penn. A late-January trip to Tuscon, Arizona was thrown in for good measure. Roy Williams has come up with a schedule fit for a championship contender. Perhaps even a true contender is incapable of running this gauntlet completely unscathed.

Conference Highlights
Play Once: (Florida State, Virginia, @ Clemson, Miami, @ Boston College, @ Maryland)

There are home and homes with Wake Forest and NC State on the schedule, but this isn’t exactly an easy tilt. The schedule gets increasingly difficult with trips to Chesnut Hill, College Park, and Atlanta as well a season-ending home date with Duke making up four of the final five conference games.

Roster Analysis

Backcourt:
This is one talented group. There is a diversity of talent and play style, and perhaps more depth than any other perimeter rotation in the country. There is a chance to keep all the blue chippers happy as well, with North Carolina’s relentless pace and Williams’ necessary desire to keep everybody’s minutes light. Last season, no guard averaged more than 27.5 minutes per game. It should be interesting to see who wins the majority of the minutes, as the freshmen are NBA-caliber and the sophomores, who got significant experience last season, are darn talented in their own right.

The Ellington and Lawson show should be fun to watch, even if it only lasts a season or two. Roy Williams has always desired an elite speedster to lead his constant fast break of a system, and Ty Lawson is one of the more talented ones to come along this decade. He is a bit undersized, but gained valuable experience running the show for Oak Hill against a national schedule. Lawson could improve his shooting form a bit, but blazing quickness will give him enough space to get off the set shot he has proven he can hit. He makes everybody around him better, and fellow freshman Wayne Ellington should reap the benefits within two or three years in the form of an NBA paycheck. With an NBA-style fadeaway as his trademark scoring move, he might be impossible to keep out of the starting lineup. He isn’t as well-rounded or consistent as his former Episcopal High teammate Henderson, but there aren’t many volume scorers capable of putting points on the board as quickly as Ellington.

The player who stands to benefit the most from Lawson’s arrival is sophomore combo guard Bobby Frasor. Frasor did a phenomenal job with the ball-handling duties a season ago, but running the squad caused his biggest strength to be marginalized. Now that he is playing off the ball most of the time, expect dramatic increases in Frasor’s shooting percentages. He could emerge as one of the ACC’s elite perimeter shooters, and was already a fantastic perimeter defender. If Frasor can’t find the range, senior Wes Miller is still around. Miller was a pleasant surprise for Williams, hitting numerous big shots during North Carolina’s decisive ACC run.

If that wasn’t enough ball-handling depth, maybe you’d like an NBA-level athlete with a 2-1 Ast/TO ratio. Junior Quentin Thomas hasn’t quite lived up to his advanced billing, but he pushes the ball well in the open court and has improved his decision making. This is a player who can make a difference playing next to Lawson. The other two guards are sophomore wings Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard, both of which played big roles as freshmen. Ginyard is an athletic, defense-minded swingman who can handle the ball in the open court and is capable of improving on his lousy freshman year shooting percentages. Danny Green is a versatile perimeter player with a high basketball IQ who should fit in perfectly as a complementary piece on a championship contender. He picks his spots well, and does a bit of everything.

Frontcourt:
With the frontcourt a major issue headed into 05-06, Tyler Hansbrough outdistanced even the most optimistic expectations by emerging as the ACC’s top big man over the second half of the conference schedule. Hansbrough managed to stay healthy, while the rest of the group was able to do just enough, mostly thanks to the success of Williams’ smaller lineups. Needless to say, depth isn’t going to be a problem this year. Williams now appears to have one of everything, and all that is left to be determined is who gets the minutes next to Hansbrough.

Hansbrough took the nation by storm, showing remarkable poise and displaying remarkable bouts of ferocity that would usually begin with multiple bodies flying across the floor and end with his dunking on whichever opposing players were left standing. He held his own against every elite big man in the conference, showing the ability to finish through contact around the basket, and occasional flashes of a perimeter game when the situation allowed for it. If Hansbrough isn’t the country’s premier returning player, he’s very close to it. The other feature returnee is senior SF Reyshawn Terry, who finally got the opportunity to play and showed once and for all why he was offered a scholarship in the first place. Terry can absolutely soar for highlight-reel finishes in the open court, and is a respectable outside shooter as well. For Terry to emerge as a legitimate NBA prospect, he needs to polish up his ball-handling skills, improve his decision making and develop his ability to create off the bounce.

Hansbrough isn’t a shot blocker, and Williams really didn’t have one at his disposal in 05-06. That all changes with the addition of Brandan Wright, a Tennessee native universally considered one of the top 3 prospects in the freshman class. The lanky, versatile forward shocked many by picking the Heels, as Duke and Kentucky were considered the strong favorites headed into his official visit to Chapel Hill. Wright needs to put on a significant amount of weight, but has a 7’5 wingspan and the ability to score facing up and with his back to the basket. Wright probably has a two-year stay ahead of him in Chapel Hill before a spot in the lottery awaits him. Williams added three other highly regarded frontcourt prospects with in-state product William Graves and west-coast projects Alex Stepheson and Deon Thompson. Stepheson is an impressive physical specimen who will need some time to develop offensively, while Thompson has lost a lot of weight in the last year and has been described as a poor man’s Sean May. Graves is very much a tweener, but can create his own shot and light it up from the outside.

Backcourt: A
Frontcourt: A
Depth: A
Experience: C+

Tempo-Adjusted Tar Heels:
http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=North%20Carolina

05-06 Tempo: 72.2 poss/40 min (29th nationally, 3rd in the ACC, up from 70.5 in 04-05)
Offensive Efficiency: 116.2 (10th nationally, 3rd in the ACC)
Defensive Efficiency: 89.8 (19th nationally, 2nd in the ACC)
Turnover %: 22.6 (239th nationally, 10th in the ACC)

This was a near perfectly balanced team in 05-06, executing equally well on both sides of the ball. They shot the ball well, dominated the glass, got to the line more often than their opponents, and distributed the ball effectively. The young Heels showed remarkable poise and dedication on the defensive end, working well as a unit and showing excellent restraint. There really isn’t a whole lot to complain about here.

The one area where this team can improve is taking care of the ball. The Tar Heels played at a racing pace last season largely without a true point guard, so it makes sense that this would be an issue. Adding Lawson to the equation, this team’s tempo-adjusted profile is should look downright scary-good at this time next year.

Recruiting Report
Scholarships available: 1
2007 Commitments
None

After Williams’ historical 2006 haul, the recruiting updates have been thin around Chapel Hill. The Heels went all in on Kevin Love, but finished a distant second to UCLA in that battle. Williams appears content to let 2007 play out while getting a jump on 2008’s elite, though he could extend an offer to Kansas point guard Tyrel Reed if a scholarship opens up in the spring and Reed decides to wait. The Heels are heavily involved with elite 08 prospects like Tyreke Evans, Delvon Roe, Samardo Samuels, and Ed Davis. Expect Williams to pick and choose amongst the cream of the crop once again.

Keys to the Season

How long will the phenoms stick around? North Carolina cashed in big time when Williams landed Lawson, Ellington, and Wright. These are three players that may not have played a minute of college basketball if not for the age limit. Will they view their freshman seasons as unfairly imposed NBA auditions, or will they buy into the team concept? Will their professional futures be a distraction that wasn’t an issue with last year’s close-knit group? Do any of the three end up back in Chapel Hill for their sophomore years?

Can Reyshawn Terry take his game to the next level? It was a breakout season for the kid buried at the end of the bench during North Carolina’s championship run. Terry has the body of an NBA small forward and shot the ball well enough to indicate he may have a decent professional career ahead of him. But his basketball know-how isn’t quite there yet, and he must continue to polish up his perimeter game. He has poor court vision and doesn’t handle the ball well at all. There is some risk of getting lost in the shuffle, especially if he doesn’t connect from the outside as consistently. Nonetheless, Williams’ lone senior improved dramatically over the course of last season, and big things appear to be in the cards.

Is there enough room on the roster for all this talent? My guess is that top 50 big men don’t travel across the country to come off the bench for four years. Nonetheless, that is what Alex Stepheson and Deon Thompson may have done if Williams continues to recruit the way that he has. Both players will add valuable depth this year, but there is so much in front of them that at least one is unlikely to be a part of the regular rotation. The same question has to be asked of former top 50 recruits Quentin Thomas, Marcus Ginyard, and Danny Green. All three could start for most programs in the country, yet everyone in this group will likely be relegated to part-time roles in 06-07. Elite talent like Lawson, Ellington, and Wright can go virtually anywhere in the country and be assured 35 minutes a game. They will be forced to earn their place as Tar Heels. Williams’ tendency to go deep into his bench should help, but a transfer or two at some point over the next year appears likely.

Conclusions: As you can tell from the flimsy Keys to the Season questions, I don’t have many bones to pick here. The talent is unquestionable and unlike last season, there is more than enough depth to go around. Ego management and playing time concerns could cause some friction, but Roy Williams knows how to deal with strong personalities. He plays an up-tempo system that requires a lot of bodies, so everybody should get their fair shot. This team is still relatively young and inexperienced which means that the standard “good vs. great” question must be asked, but again, North Carolina’s youth really shouldn’t be an issue. This team played like a group of seasoned veterans last year on both ends of the floor, and that really shouldn’t change in 06-07. Just like rival Duke’s outlook a season ago, it is national title or bust for the Tar Heels this year.

Prediction: 1st