Ed Davis

Ed Davis missed quite a bit of time down the stretch, but he accomplished quite a bit early in the year and looks better from a situational perspective than some more polished players.

Davis’ 12.5 possessions per-game rank him just above Patterson in terms of usage and still right around the average for our sample of power forwards. His 1.0 overall PPP is good for 6th, and shows that despite being a raw offensive player, he still gets the job done efficiently. He certainly helped his cause last season by getting fouled on 12.3% of his shots (3rd).

Though Davis was pretty productive overall relative to his touches, he ranked right around the average in post up situations in terms of efficiency (0.84 PPP) and usage (4 Pos/G). He benefitted from the play of his teammates, finishing his possessions from basket cuts at an excellent 77.8% clip. In contrast, he shot just 28.6% in a meager sample of spot-up opportunities (0.4 Pos/G). Clearly, Davis still needs to improve his midrange game to become a more capable threat from the elbows and a more versatile scorer.

Attempting the fewest jump shots on our list at just 0.4 shots per-game, Davis got a larger percentage of his shots in finishing situations than every player on our list aside from Latavious Williams. Though Davis was able to be pretty effective on the whole, he’s a bit limited in what areas he can help a team at this time. Whatever team drafts him will do so with the hope that he’ll be able to round out the rest of his game while still taking advantage of what his teammates can create for him around the basket.

Jonathan Givony

With his season coming to a close following a broken wrist that will keep him out of action for 6-8 weeks, this is as good a time as any to summarize the performance of North Carolina big man Ed Davis.

Coming into the season with massive expectations after flashing brilliant glimpses of potential playing a small but important role en route to winning a national championship, the general consensus amongst NBA teams and the mass media is that Davis had somewhat of a disappointing sophomore campaign—especially when considering how badly his team has underachieved.

Digging deeper, though, and seeing the glaring offensive limitations he showed as a freshman, it was pretty obvious that Davis was always going to need time to develop into the player many envision him becoming down the road.

Looking at his physical profile, Davis continues to sport an outstanding frame that is still at least 2-3 years away from fully filling out. His wingspan is outstanding on top of that, and allows him to play much bigger than his size.

He displays a strange blend of athleticism, on one hand running the floor extremely well and being fairly explosive around the rim, but on the other lacking a significant amount of fluidity and reactivity, being somewhat upright and clearly on the mechanical side. From time to time you’ll see him make some extremely impressive plays, but for the most part it’s difficult to describe him as being a great athlete at this point in time, at least in terms of his ability to actually utilize his athleticism.

Offensively, Davis remains extremely raw, being mostly limited to finishing plays in the immediate area around the basket and having a difficult time creating his own shot. His lack of strength makes it tough for him to establish position deep in the post and finish through contact in traffic, something that forces him to settle for difficult shots outside of his comfort zone. His footwork is raw and he avoids his right hand like the plague (he’s left-handed), not looking all that impressive when forced to improvise on the fly, and having a very difficult time against more physical defenders.

You’d like to see him develop somewhat of a mean streak to compensate for his average skill-level, as it would make it much easier for him to get on the floor in the NBA early on in his career. That’s not really the type of player he is, though.

On the flip side, Davis’ length makes him a terrific target for his (very streaky) guards to lob the ball into the paint to, and he finishes well around the basket for that same reason, getting amazing extension on his jump-hook shot, being able to elevate from long vantage points, and showing excellent touch around the rim. He draws fouls at a good rate and converts on a solid 66% of his free throws.

Facing the basket, Davis has a long ways to go, as his ball-handling skills are close to non-existent and he lacks significant range on his jump-shot. He’s taken only four jumpers all season long according to Synergy Sports Technology, and you can tell why for the most part when looking at the ones he did attempt.

Davis must continue to work on honing his perimeter game and become at least a respectable mid-range shooter to reach his full potential down the road, as he’s probably not going to make a living as a banger early on in his career. At the moment he’s obviously more of a center than a power forward on the offensive end of the floor, which made him a less than ideal front-court pairing at North Carolina with the similarly interior oriented Deon Thompson.

Now that we’ve had 23 games to evaluate him in a fairly significant role, it’s easier to confidently assert that he’s more likely to emerge as a complimentary scorer than as a real go-to guy. With that said, he has some truly excellent attributes that he brings to the table—as he’s a team player, an unselfish guy, fairly smart and executes his team’s offense very well. These are exactly the things you would expect being the son of a former NBA player, and is precisely what you want to see from an excellent role-player.

Defensively and as a rebounder is where Davis shows the most potential, thanks to his rare combination of fundamentals and physical tools. He ranks as one of the best shot-blockers in college basketball, being a major presence in the paint with his terrific length and timing, and should be able to make big strides as a post-defender and rim-protector as he continues to add strength to his frame. His wingspan allows him to go well outside of his area for rebounds as well, again being very productive in this area on both ends of the floor with his 12.4 rebounds per-40 minutes pace adjusted.

On the downside, Davis tends to get pushed around by older and stronger players, giving up deep position in the paint at times in the process. His perimeter defense is just average, as he’s mobile enough to get out and hedge screens defending the pick and roll, but is a little too upright in his stance to stay in front of big men laterally who can attack him off the dribble. Once again, the impression you get from watching him play is that he may be better suited (at least initially) for the center position rather than the power forward spot you often see him projected at.

While many would contend that Davis is being overrated if considered a high-lottery pick like most NBA draft services have ranked him all season long, counter to that argument is that there just aren’t many big men available (either in free agency or the draft) with his physical tools, intangibles and potential.

With that said, there is no question that whichever team drafts him will need to be patient with the way they bring him along, as he’s clearly not ready at this stage to play a major role in the NBA. You have to wonder how much different of a player he’ll be once he’s able to put on a good 15-20 pounds to his terrific frame, though, as it should make things considerably easier for him on both ends of the floor.

Davis’ untimely injury puts him in a bit of a difficult spot, as he needed to have a strong showing in March in order to give his NBA draft stock a boost. He’ll now have a tough decision ahead of him this spring in terms of deciding whether or not to enter his name in the draft, as he probably could have fooled an NBA team into drafting him way too high last year purely based on upside, but won’t be afforded the same luxury if he decides to come back for another season and again doesn’t “live up to expectations.”

Another year at North Carolina under Roy Williams and highly respected strength and conditioning coach Jonas Sahratian may not be such a bad thing for his long-term development, especially since he’ll be able to move to his natural position at the 5-spot with Deon Thompson graduating, but it also comes with a significant amount of risk. Considering that his background is fairly different than most NBA prospects, he’s in a position to make the right decision.

Matthew Williams

A consensus top-10 recruit, Ed Davis had the attention of NBA decision-makers from the moment he suited up for the North Carolina Tar Heels last fall. Though he didn’t display the most polished skill set, after playing a small role for the National Champions, Davis was a potential lottery pick last season based almost entirely on his upside. Wasting no time in voicing his decision to return to school, the freshman positioned himself as a top-10 prospect for the 2010 draft and a player to watch in the upcoming season.

It isn’t hard to see what makes Davis such a highly regarded prospect despite his lack of experience. Standing roughly 6’10 and possessing an outstanding wingspan, Davis displays excellent mobility and coordination for a player still only scratching the surface of his remarkable promise. Passing the look-test with ease, the only aspect of Davis’ physical profile that can be considered problematic is his lack of ideal strength. Possessing a fairly narrow frame, it won’t be easy for Davis to add weight, but he’ll have plenty of time to fill out as his game continues to emerge.

Though Davis averaged a respectable 6.7 points per-game last season, a number that will likely double this season with graduation of Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, and Ty Lawson to the NBA. Playing a purely complementary role, Davis showed the flashes of brilliance that one would expect from a player with his tools. Creating opportunities for himself by working hard on the offensive glass and being the beneficiary of countless draw and kicks from his teammates, Davis displays absolutely tremendous touch around the basket –something Roy Williams consistently took advantage of last season.

Though Davis will need to develop his lower body strength to establish position on the block at the next level, he saw almost 40% of his possessions in the post and shot 48.8% when operating with his back to the basket last season according to Synergy Sports Technology. Lacking a great deal of polish or much in the way of counter moves, Davis scores most of his points operating over his right shoulder, displaying good extension on his hook shot. He’ll need to improve his comfortable level with his right hand to avoid becoming predictable, but has essentially no trouble shooting over his defender whenever he decides to elevate. For a freshman post player with a lot of room for improvement, Davis looks smooth and decisive, two things that bode well for his ability to diversify his post game in the future.

While Davis already shows a natural feel for getting his shot off in close, he doesn’t display much in the way of a midrange game at this point. Able to face-up and put the ball on the floor for one or two straight-line dribbles, Davis can get to the rim off the bounce when the opportunities presents itself, but he didn’t shoot many jump shots last season, and will need to develop better follow through on his jumper to open up opportunities to use his other tools on the next level. Though Davis shoots the ball with an especially high release point from in close, his midrange jump shot isn’t nearly as refined, featuring a long and inconsistent release that hurts his efficiency from outside of 12-feet. His ability to become more than just a catch and finish option in his second season will be an important factor in how he is perceived by NBA-types next summer.

Defensively, Davis has already taken some notable steps. Ranking in the top-20 in our database in both rebounds per-40 minutes pace adjusted as well as blocks per-40 minutes pace adjusted, the activity level Davis displays when working without the ball on the offensive end carries over seamlessly to the defensive side of the ball. Not the most explosive defender laterally, Davis’s length is a tremendous asset to him defensively. Staying low and moving his feet well when defending the ball and stepping out on the pick and roll, the young big man still has a lot to learn, as he’s prone to over-committing to help his teammates, staring down the ball, and recovering a step slow to shooters out on the perimeter. Still able to bother some shooters with his length even when he doesn’t close out in time, Davis will show some good things on the block as well, doing a nice job going straight up to use his wingspan, showing good quickness, and solid discipline. As Davis develops his defensive fundamentals and awareness, he’ll become a very solid defender at the NCAA level, but his ability to add weight will be a big factor in how easily he can make the transition to the NBA.

Ed Davis enters his sophomore year with a lot to prove. Though he shows some nice tools, his role last season was limited –something that will change considerably this season. One of Roy Williams’ top returns, Davis will be looked to for production and clutch play. His ability to deliver on both fronts, coupled with his physical development and ability to diversify his offensive game, will be key to his maturation as a player and 2010 draft stock.

The son of a former NBA player, Davis displayed nice upside throughout the week, but has plenty of work to do before he can be considered an immediate NBA prospect. Showing good length, he scores the majority of his points facing the basket from mid-range. He can step out and hit jumpers out to 15 feet, and seems comfortable operating anywhere from within 10-15 feet of the basket. The future Tar Heel uses his length as an advantage on the glass, and plays very actively on both ends of the floor.

Davis must first and foremost add weight to his skinny frame. The forward weighs in at just around 200 pounds as it is, and will struggle to adjust to the more physical players in the ACC during the first part of his freshman season. Back to the basket scoring will also need to be an area of focus for the incoming freshman. It looks like he could develop a nice lefty hook to rely on with his back to the basket, but he just tends to face up and shoot the jumper at this point. With added strength, Davis would become much better on the defensive end of the floor as well.

This wasn’t really a major test for Ed Davis (#10 Scout, #20 Rivals), as the organizers decided to pit his team against a depleted St. George squad rather than the originally scheduled matchup with Samardo Samuels and St. Benedict’s. Nevertheless, Davis worked hard in the three quarters he participated in (he sat out the last quarter of pure garbage time), showing his strengths and weaknesses as a collegiate prospect.

Davis has excellent tools for a power forward, with decent size, outstanding length and a frame that is currently fairly narrow, but should fill out with time. Davis runs the floor well, is quick off his feet, and can really elevate to contest shots or finish around the rim.

Offensively, Davis played mostly in the low post today, although he has a reputation for being someone who can play inside and out. He didn’t seem to have a problem going to work with his back to the basket, showing some nice spin-moves, a solid jump-hook, and really nice patience and poise operating in the paint. When faced with a double team, he didn’t have a problem finding the open man, as he generally seems to be a pretty smart, unselfish player.

Davis does almost all of his damage right now with his left hand (shot-blocking, scoring, and dribbling), looking pretty limited with his right—which isn’t that much of an issue at this level. He’ll have to develop his right hand into being at least somewhat of a weapon if he’s to reach his full potential down the road, though. The thing we liked the best about the way Davis played today was the aggressiveness he showed finishing around the hoop. He does not settle for soft finishes here, going up and dunking everything with two hands, aided greatly by the terrific extension he has here thanks to his wingspan. Davis also uses this same extension to establish himself as a force on the glass, particularly on the offensive end. He was incredibly active here, fighting constantly inside and getting his hands on plenty of loose balls.

Facing the basket, Davis attempted just one jumper on the day, a nice-looking 16 footer which he missed. He was used mostly as an old-school back to the basket pivot. He didn’t show any ball-handling skills either.

Defensively, Davis was solid, blocking some shots and altering others. There wasn’t much to evaluate here since he really wasn’t challenged by anyone noteworthy, but he did do a good job from what he was asked to do. He’s got good potential in this area as a collegiate player thanks to his length and solid athleticism, but he’ll need to add 15-20 pounds to his frame before he’ll really be able to play serious high-level minutes defensively in the ACC. That should come eventually.

All in all, it looks like North Carolina has landed itself another very solid role player. Davis has the chance to develop into more than that, but it will take him some time. He looks to be on the right path.

Davis did not disappoint with his statistical output throughout the week, although his team was bounced awfully early in tournament play given all of the talent that they possessed. He showed why many consider him the nation’s top power forward, as he rebounded the ball consistently, showed the ability to play out of the high post, and of course used his patented athleticism to finish everything around the rim. By our accounts there was not a game in which Davis had less then 16 points on the weekend, a testament to his consistency. On the defensive end, the Virginia native uses his massive wingspan and outstanding leaping ability to block/alter his fair share of shots, making opposing big men think two (and three) times before putting the ball up in the paint against himself and Ty Walker.

In order for Ed to fulfill his fullest potential, he must continue to improve as a ball handler and midrange jump shooter. While his low post moves are quite solid at the moment, he goes left almost every time, making him quite predictable to guard. Either way, the Virginia native has just as much (if not more) potential then any power forward in the class and appears to be on the right path to fulfill that.