Robert Dozier

A strong senior season continued on an excellent note this weekend, as Robert Dozier put up back to back excellent games in the semi and final games of the Conference USA Tournament, helping his Memphis Tigers win yet another conference title, and becoming a member of the winningest class in NCAA history along the way.

Dozier made a number of important improvements to his game as a senior, becoming a much more productive and efficient all-around player. His field goal percentage is up substantially, from 44 to 52%, despite shouldering a bigger role offensively, and he’s become much more consistent both from the free throw line and beyond the arc.

His shooting stroke would probably be a good place to start. Dozier has made 21/52 3-point attempts so far this year, which is a good percentage (40.4%) but probably too small a sample size to get overly excited about. Dozier is pretty solid at making open 3’s with his feet set and space to get his shot off, but he struggles when rushed or forced to shoot off the dribble. Part of the reason he’s improved his percentages this year is because he’s improved his shot-selection, cutting down on many of the wild fade-aways he would settle for in the past. He is pretty solid from mid-range now, also with his feet set, particularly from the elbow, where Memphis likes to let him go to work.

Dozier is still a pretty crude ball-handler, especially trying to change directions with the ball or utilize his left hand, but he’s very capable of taking his man off one or two short dribbles if isolated 12-17 feet away from the basket—and especially once again from the elbow. His first step is excellent, and he’s become much smarter at knowing when to put the ball on the floor, which has made him a pretty nice mismatch for Memphis at the PF position this season, and has helped him get to the free throw line at a solid rate.

Not particularly strong in either the upper or lower body, Dozier has regardless become fairly effective operating with his back to the basket at the C-USA level, mostly utilizing his excellent quickness and above average footwork to beat opponents in the paint. His length and athleticism also allows him to be a fairly reliable finisher around the basket, making him a fairly popular target for Memphis’ guards to find on cuts or transition situations.

Defensively, Dozier is very solid, and obviously deserves credit for helping Memphis become one of the stingiest teams in all of college basketball. His length and athleticism play a big part in Memphis’ full-court press and pick and roll defense, where they like to switch on pretty much every screen. In the post he does a great job contesting shots, even though he lacks the strength to hold his ground against bigger opponents at times. He’s active in the passing lanes and is an above average shot-blocker as well, where his length comes in very handy. The downside here is his rebounding numbers, which are nothing to write home about.

Dozier has yet to really show what his niche will be at the next level, as he’s not particularly skilled offensively in any facet, and there are question marks about how his defense and rebounding will translate to the NBA. He may lack the bulk to guard some of the stronger power forwards he’ll match up with at times, and probably is too upright on the perimeter to defend small forwards full time. The fact that he will turn 24 by the time the NBA season kicks off may make you wonder just how much weight he’ll be able to add to his skinny frame, as his body hasn’t changed much over the last few years. Still, it’s not out of the question that a team decides to take a chance on him somewhere in the second round, or by offering a roster spot via training camp, as his combination of length, athleticism, activity level and ability to space the floor are all big pluses.

Robert Dozier has been a key part of Memphis’ undefeated season so far on both ends of the floor. In this, his junior season, Dozier has finally begun to find some consistency in his game, most notably in his effort, but also in his production. An off-court issue saw him suspended for Memphis’ last game after being accused of assaulting his girlfriend, which is not going to help his draft stock obviously.

Dozier is an extremely athletic player and moves exceptionally well for a power forward; calling him mobile is an understatement. Most impressive, however, is his quickness. He has the type of agility needed to give him the potential to guard both forward positions at the next level. In addition, he runs the floor extremely well and puts himself in good position to get transition baskets. This ability is aided by his very good body control, which makes him look like a guard when executing moves at times. One thing that he must improve, however, is his strength. He is extremely skinny, listed around 215 pounds, and he must get stronger if he wants to compete at the next level.

Most of Dozier’s offensive game consists of spot up perimeter jumpers, slashing to the hoop, and taking whatever opportunities his athleticism allows. His ability to hit perimeter jumpers is certainly a valuable skill, but he must improve his form before he can expect to rely on it consistently. He has a very awkward shooting motion, bringing the ball up from his waist slowly and in an exaggerated fashion. Therefore, when he finally releases the ball, he is pushing it forward with his arms, most often resulting in overshooting and a missed shot. While his form looks better when he is given time to set his feet, it’s hard to envision him getting the type of time he needs to get his shot off with any real success at the next level if he doesn’t improve his mechanics significantly. His 44.8% from the field and 29.2% from the perimeter are accurate indicators considering his jumpshot and these numbers are similar to the ones he posted last season. His potential at the next level relies heavily on his ability to become a consistent perimeter shooter, and considering that he has another year at Memphis, he should aim to show up next season with a much-improved jump-shot.

Dozier has shown a very raw mid-range game at this stage, mostly consisting of spot-up jumpshots and mechanical pull-up jumpers. Dozier likes to put the ball on the floor, has very good body control, and likes to shoot jump-shots so it seems as though he has the ability, at some point and with a lot of work, to possess a passable mid-range game. However, while creating jumpshots was a rare occurrence last season, he is starting to create for himself more often, and while he is extremely far from consistent, the potential is there. His handle needs work as he displays a high, wild dribble that he should work on tightening. This is important, because another part of Dozier’s game is slashing. He loves to dribble to the basket, but because of this loose handle, combined with the fact that his touch around the basket is not great, he is not nearly as effective as he could be in this area. Also, his lack of strength hurts him here. While he does possess good body control when he gets into the air, he does not have the strength to absorb contact well. At the next level, he must improve if he wants to be even remotely effective as a slasher.

A big part of Dozier’s potential at the next level will rely on his ability to become a lockdown defender. Considering his physical abilities, he should be there already. While he does show incredibly good lateral quickness for a player his size, Dozier’s largest problem at this stage is focus and fundamentals. Defensive misreads are common in his game, and often result in him failing to close out his man on the perimeter, giving up an easy bucket, or a pointless foul. This being said, when Dozier does put consistent focus and effort into defense, he looks outstanding. Using his length, athleticism, and timing, he has developed into a good shot-blocker, averaging 1.8 blocks per game, and 2.8 blocks per 40 minutes. He has developed into a solid rebounder this year, averaging 7.2 rebounds per game without boxing out his man most of the time. Developing fundamentals, combined with his physical tools and gigantic wingspan (reported to be around 7-3), and some added toughness, would allow him to be an extremely good rebounder at any level.

While Memphis’ incredible team defense often covers up for Dozier’s inconsistencies on this end, he really must put effort into consistently playing hard, including staying in a defensive stance with his body wide and his hands in the air, boxing out on every shot, remembering not to bite on fakes, and ultimately knowing his team defensive rotations well. Normally, criticisms about a college player’s defensive ability are not this extensive, but Dozier’s success in the NBA will rely heavily on his improvement on the defensive end of the floor.

Combo forwards are all the rage in the NBA, and Dozier has the potential to follow in the footsteps of Travis Outlaw, Tyrus Thomas, Dominic McGuire, and, as a ceiling, perhaps a Shawn Marion type player. However, he has a long way to go, and must continue to develop as a player on both ends of the floor. Becoming a defensive stopper should be his top priority in the coming months because, ultimately, it will likely be how he makes it to the NBA. There is a long season still ahead for the Memphis Tigers, and Dozier will be a key part of the proceedings, with scouts watching every step of the way.

Memphis Tiger fans have spent the last two seasons waiting for the physically gifted Robert Dozier to realize his potential, but have only been treated to glimpses so far of what might be one day. Dozier has a tremendous amount of upside and many will be asking if this is the season that he turns the corner and becomes a consistent contributor on offense for John Calipari’s squad.

Physically, there is very little to not like about Dozier. He fits the mold of the modern-day hybrid power forward, one that can play on the perimeter and create all kinds of matchup problems for defenses. At 6’9”, Dozier isn’t very big as a post player, but his tremendous quickness for a player his size makes him a nightmare for bigger post players to cover on the perimeter. He is also a freakishly long athlete, which aids him in many facets of the game, but at just 215 pounds, he certainly needs to add some more muscle to his wiry frame.

Dozier spends a lot of his time on the perimeter; he is very clearly a face-up type player, and also projects as one at the next level. His ball handling skills aren’t the best, but he often is able to get away with it because he has such a quick first step getting into the lane. While in general his decision making abilities aren’t great, Dozier from time to time looks very fluid going to the basket, able to incorporate spin moves in traffic with soft finishes. Generally speaking, though, he lacks great touch on his shots around the basket, and against quicker players the weaknesses in his ball-handling skills are exposed.

Dozier clearly needs to improve his perimeter shooting to maximize his potential as a floor spacer at the next level. Dozier actually has good form on his shot, albeit his release is a little slow, but there don’t appear to be any real mechanical issues with his shot. He does need to become a more consistent shooter though. Once he steps outside of the paint his shooter percentage really starts to drop, and from beyond the arc, he connected on just 12 of 41 attempts last season. What is nice to see is Dozier showing some ability to create shot opportunities for himself. He is quick enough to take most post players off the dribble either to the basket or for a pull up jump shot, and if he becomes a better shooter from the outside, will be able to shoot over smaller quicker players defenses use to slow him down.

The post is not somewhere that Dozier will likely spend much time at the next level; he just has too many fundamental problems right now. Dozier is a raw athlete, there is no doubt about that, but nowhere is that more apparent than when he receives the ball on the block. He has no real fundamental post moves at this point, other than an awkward attempt at a hook shot, which he usually releases too low in his jump and when he isn’t square to the basket. He struggles with contact because of his thin frame, and this prevents him from shooting at a higher percentage. The few flashes that Dozier does show inside stem from his quickness, rather than a polished skill set. From time to time, he is able to get a step on his defender and pull off a pretty spin move into the middle and finish the easy shot. He has absolutely no left hand though, and NBA advanced scouts will be able to pick up on this very quickly. At the slightest bit of pressure, Dozier will switch to his right hand on interior shots, even when this creates a better opportunity for defenders to block his shot.

Defensively, Dozier again displays a lot of potential. His size, length and athleticism allow him to guard a wide range of players. The NCAA Tournament saw Dozier spend time guarding Nevada big man Nick Fazekas, and Ohio State guards Mike Conley Jr. and Daequan Cook. Dozier is the quick and long type of player that provides solid help defense, and guards the pick and roll well. He does have a tendency to get lost sometimes on defense and allow his man to burn him. Being a quick jumper allowed him to block 1.5 shots per game last season and pull down 6.2 rebounds in just 25 minutes of playing time, though. When Dozier chooses to really step up, he is a very good off the ball defender, both inside and on the perimeter.

Dozier is a raw player, with tremendous athleticism and a world of potential; he hasn’t shown much more than the occasional glimpse yet though. He needs to become a tougher player, particularly inside both offensively and defensively. It is clear that he could develop into the kind of player that creates all sorts of matchup problems one day, but he could just as easily be a physical talent that never develops the skills to make it. There aren’t very many players his size that are capable of some of the plays he is able to make, though. If Dozier puts forth the effort more often and becomes more consistent with his perimeter shooting, his is a name that could move up draft boards very quickly.

Robert Dozier showed some nice flashes of talent, leaving some hope that he might finally be turning the corner on becoming a productive option for Memphis at the power forward spot—as his upside would suggest. He had a few nice moves in the post thanks to his excellent quickness, and successfully tried to use his body in the post to carve out some space for himself. He also ran the floor well and had a couple of nice blocks, as well as knocking down a good looking 18 foot jump-shot. He still has a lot of work to do on his strength (he struggled to finish at times in traffic) as well as delivering a more consistent effort on every play, as he has a tendency to fade from time to time and not make good enough use of his excellent physical tools.