A key component of the game of basketball, statistics are both exalted for their comprehensiveness and condemned for their ridiculousness. There are an unlimited number of ways to evaluate a player on paper, with each seemingly generating non-stop debate over its value. In recent seasons, Synergy Sports Technology and other companies have brought on a new generation of statistics in basketball, and along with the likes of John Hollinger and Dean Oliver, have changed the way NBA teams evaluate prospects.
Accounting for every jumper missed on a fast break, pick and roll from the top of key, and bad pass in crunch time, the data at the disposal of NBA decision-makers seems to get deeper almost daily. As statistics become more advanced, you can even start to predict what areas a college player may struggle in moving forward based on what their numbers in college or where they may still have upside.
As we get further and further away from the actual season that was played between November and April, we tend to forget at times how productive prospects actually were on their individual teams between all the talk about wingspans and upside and performance in private workouts and such.
With that in mind, we're running a simple analysis of how all the top prospects in this draft compare in all the different facets of the game statistically that matter at their individual position.
Points Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | PTS40PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Hairston | Tex Legends | NBADL | 27 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | NCAA | 25.8 |
| Jordan McRae | Tennessee | NCAA | 24.2 |
| Andre Dawkins | Duke | NCAA | 23.6 |
| Lamar Patterson | Pittsburgh | NCAA | 22.4 |
| Jordan Adams | UCLA | NCAA | 22 |
| Jabari Brown | Missouri | NCAA | 21.8 |
| Devyn Marble | Iowa | NCAA | 21.4 |
| Nik Stauskas | Michigan | NCAA | 21 |
| Gary Harris | Michigan State | NCAA | 20.9 |
| C.J. Wilcox | Washington | NCAA | 20.5 |
| Nick Johnson | Arizona | NCAA | 20.5 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | Partizan | EURO, ADR, SERBIA | 19.5 |
| Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | NCAA | 19.4 |
| Mateusz Ponitka | Oostende | ECUP, BELGIUM | 19.4 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | NCAA | 18.8 |
| Marcus Eriksson | Manresa | ACB | 18.7 |
| Markel Brown | Oklahoma State | NCAA | 18.6 |
| Alessandro Gentile | Milano | EURO, ITALY | 18.6 |
| Zach LaVine | UCLA | NCAA | 14.7 |
This stat tells us plainly how often these guards put the ball in the basket, adjusting for minutes played and pace, which levels the playing field as best as we can without taking into account competition level, individual team roles, and teammates into consideration. This is a good place to start with this group of players, as it tells us about their versatility, the range of roles they played last season, and a little bit about each prospect's mentality as a playmaker or scorer.
P.J. Hairston is the most prolific scorer in this group despite having spent the year playing against pros in the D-League. Leading this group in field goal attempts per-40 minutes pace adjusted while shooting a terrific 55% inside the arc and a respectable 36% from beyond it, Hairston started the season on a tear and ended the year among the D-League's top-10 scorers. Benefitting from the spacing and pace of the game in the NBADL, Hairston managed to make a major impact this season after his eligibility situation at North Carolina seemed to put his draft stock in limbo.
Sean Kilpatrick takes the top spot among college players. Carrying Cincinnati on both ends for stretches, Kilpatrick had a simply outstanding senior season playing both on and off the ball for stretches.
Jordan McRae and Lamar Patterson were similarly effective in their fourth collegiate season. Andre Dawkins is perhaps the most surprising name on this list considering he averaged just 7.9 points per-game. Averaging right around 14.5 points per-40 minute pace adjusted through his first three seasons on campus, only Marshall Henderson attempted more 3-pointers per minute than Dawkins as he assumed the role of shooter off the bench.
Among top guards, Jordan Adams, Nik Stauskas, and Gary Harris all finished the year above the coveted 20-point per-40 minutes pace adjusted line.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is the top international scorer among shooting guards, with Mateusz Ponitka not too far behind. Unlike many players we see in these studies, both players functioned as primary options for their respective teams this season when they were on the court.
Zach LaVine takes the bottom-spot on this list by a sizeable margin. Like Dawkins, he played a fairly minor role compared to the other players on this list, but unlike Dawkins. was still on the court for 26 minutes per game. His inexperience and lack of prolific shot creating ability limited him for stretches, which hints at the fact that he is unlikely to play a major role in the NBA right away.
Three Point Attempts Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | 3A40PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Dawkins | Duke | NCAA | 13.7 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | NCAA | 9.8 |
| P.J. Hairston | Tex Legends | NBADL | 9.7 |
| Marcus Eriksson | Manresa | ACB | 9.3 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | Partizan | EURO, ADR, SERBIA | 8.3 |
| Gary Harris | Michigan State | NCAA | 8.2 |
| C.J. Wilcox | Washington | NCAA | 8 |
| Jordan McRae | Tennessee | NCAA | 7.9 |
| Lamar Patterson | Pittsburgh | NCAA | 7.5 |
| Nik Stauskas | Michigan | NCAA | 6.9 |
| Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | NCAA | 6.3 |
| Jabari Brown | Missouri | NCAA | 6.1 |
| Devyn Marble | Iowa | NCAA | 5.7 |
| Nick Johnson | Arizona | NCAA | 5.6 |
| Mateusz Ponitka | Oostende | ECUP, BELGIUM | 5.4 |
| Zach LaVine | UCLA | NCAA | 5.4 |
| Jordan Adams | UCLA | NCAA | 5.1 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | NCAA | 4.7 |
| Markel Brown | Oklahoma State | NCAA | 4.6 |
| Alessandro Gentile | Milano | EURO, ITALY | 4.2 |
This stat tells us a lot about the roles these prospects played for their respective teams, the confidence they had in their perimeter shooting ability, and the freedom they were given by their former coaches.
Andre Dawkins leads this group by a wide margin as he got up shots from beyond the arc in bunches as Duke's offensive spark plug off the bench. Perhaps more impressively, Dawkins' 42% from 3-point range places second in this group.
Sean Kilpatrick, P.J. Hairston, and Marcus Eriksson make up the second tier of shooters in this group. Kilpatrick's aggressiveness shooting the 3 was the result of his team's heavy reliance on him offensively, as well as his average ball-handling skills, while Hairston, who adjusted quickly to the spacing of the NBADL, actually slightly attempted more threes per-40 minutes pace adjusted as a sophomore at UNC.. Obviously, his offensive game translated fairly smoothly to that level considering his prolific shooting and scoring numbers.
Marcus Eriksson and Bogdan Bogdanovic are the odd-balls in this group, as young international players typically don't get the chance to take on an offensive role that gives them tremendous freedom in their shot selection. Bogdanovic stepped into a huge role this season that had him playing on and off the ball while leading Partizan in scoring, and he never looked back. Eriksson on the other hand is arguably the purest shooter in this group, although strong arguments can be made for Nik Stuaskas and C.J. Wilcox, both of whom finish close to average in this metric, as well. The Swedish wing who has been known for his shooting his entire career stepped into a somewhat unique role this season in the ACB, being asked to create his own shot quite a bit, but still shooting 38% from three. One of the purest 1993-born stop-up shooters you'll find in the world, Manresa let him free-wheel a bit offensive, which results in his high placements here and limited his efficiency to some degree. Eriksson shot above 50% from deep in the LEB Gold a year ago for Barcelona's 2nd team playing a more catch and shoot oriented role.
It's not shocking to find teammates Zach LaVine and Jordan Adams near the bottom of this list given LaVine's relatively minor offensive role and Adams' versatile all-around offensive game. Spencer Dinwiddie lived at the line this season until he got hurt, which we'll see below, so he was not all that eager to settle from beyond the arc despite being a 41% three-point shooter. Markel Brown's athleticism had him finishing more efficiently at the rim than any player in this group, and aside from the games Marcus Smart was hurt, he didn't force much from the outside. Alessandro Gentile takes the bottom spot here, which is somewhat surprising. He has among the most aggressive shot selections of any shooting guard in this draft, but was most aggressive creating his own shot in the midrange, which is perhaps why he didn't have as good of a year as many hoped he would.
Three Point Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | 3A_FGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Dawkins | Duke | NCAA | 0.8 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | NCAA | 0.53 |
| P.J. Hairston | Tex Legends | NBADL | 0.51 |
| Marcus Eriksson | Manresa | ACB | 0.6 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | Partizan | EURO, ADR, SERBIA | 0.48 |
| Gary Harris | Michigan State | NCAA | 0.51 |
| C.J. Wilcox | Washington | NCAA | 0.53 |
| Jordan McRae | Tennessee | NCAA | 0.43 |
| Lamar Patterson | Pittsburgh | NCAA | 0.45 |
| Nik Stauskas | Michigan | NCAA | 0.53 |
| Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | NCAA | 0.37 |
| Jabari Brown | Missouri | NCAA | 0.45 |
| Devyn Marble | Iowa | NCAA | 0.34 |
| Nick Johnson | Arizona | NCAA | 0.36 |
| Mateusz Ponitka | Oostende | ECUP, BELGIUM | 0.39 |
| Zach LaVine | UCLA | NCAA | 0.44 |
| Jordan Adams | UCLA | NCAA | 0.34 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | NCAA | 0.48 |
| Markel Brown | Oklahoma State | NCAA | 0.36 |
| Alessandro Gentile | Milano | EURO, ITALY | 0.28 |
This stat examines how heavily these guards relied on the 3-ball to score, which is a good indicator of the roles each prospect played last season, but also an indirect gauge of how well each of them got to the rim as well. Players which attempted a large proportion of their shots from beyond the arc may have some deficiencies in terms of size, ball-handling ability, athleticism, aggressiveness, or shot-selection. Or they simply could be outstanding shooters. Every player should be judged individually in this regard.
The rankings shift around a bit in this category compared to the last, making it easier to distinguish shooting specialists from those who see many three-point attempts simply based on a high volume of possessions.
Spencer Dinwiddie jumps from the bottom of the pack to just above the middle. Dinwiddie was slightly below average in overall scoring production, but was able to put up 18.8 points per-40 minutes pace adjusted despite taking significantly fewer shots per-40 minutes pace adjusted that any other player. His low shot total, which he overcame by getting to the line and being extremely efficient overall, results in his jump here. Unfortunately the extremely small sample size of games played makes it difficult to read too much into these numbers.
Andre Dawkins takes the top spot here as he did in the last category, but the 80% of his shots that came from beyond the arc dwarf the rest of the field by a huge margin. In today's NBA game, which is increasingly oriented around spacing and 3-point shooting, Dawkins' one-dimensional skill-set certainly isn't as much of a negative as it once was, especially considering how accurate he was.
Nik Stauskas and C.J. Wilcox jump into the top-4 here to join Marcus Eriksson, showing how, despite their different usage levels and roles, each player got shots up from beyond the arc at a similar rate. Gary Harris finishes just outside of the top-5 here, and his ability to spread the floor and hit shots is one of the main reasons he was so highly touted, even if his versatility doesn't make him stand out as a shooter on paper.
Fuquan Edwin and Jordan McRae were the biggest fallers from the previous table, as their very high overall usage for their teams lowers their ratio here.
Jordan Adams attempting just 34% of his field goal attempts from beyond the arc presents somewhat of a challenge in projecting his NBA role, as it appears unlikely that he's athletic enough to play the same role in the NBA. It will be interesting to see how much transition scoring, post-up attempts and mid-range jumpers get cut out of his game as he transitions to the NBA game. The fact that he shot 36% from beyond the arc leaves some room for optimism here.
Free Throw Attempts Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | FTA40PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | NCAA | 8.9 |
| Jabari Brown | Missouri | NCAA | 8.3 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | NCAA | 7.8 |
| Devyn Marble | Iowa | NCAA | 7.6 |
| Jordan McRae | Tennessee | NCAA | 7.6 |
| P.J. Hairston | Tex Legends | NBADL | 7 |
| Nik Stauskas | Michigan | NCAA | 6.8 |
| Jordan Adams | UCLA | NCAA | 6.6 |
| Mateusz Ponitka | Oostende | ECUP, BELGIUM | 6.4 |
| Lamar Patterson | Pittsburgh | NCAA | 6.4 |
| Nick Johnson | Arizona | NCAA | 6.2 |
| Markel Brown | Oklahoma State | NCAA | 6.2 |
| Gary Harris | Michigan State | NCAA | 5.1 |
| Alessandro Gentile | Milano | EURO, ITALY | 4.9 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | Partizan | EURO, ADR, SERBIA | 4.2 |
| C.J. Wilcox | Washington | NCAA | 4.1 |
| Andre Dawkins | Duke | NCAA | 3.3 |
| Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | NCAA | 3.2 |
| Zach LaVine | UCLA | NCAA | 2.9 |
| Marcus Eriksson | Manresa | ACB | 2.6 |
Free throws attempted per-40 minutes is a good statistic to measure the aggressiveness of a player getting to the rim, as well as his athleticism and ball-handling skills. In some ways, it provides an inverse look at the three-point stats we just looked at.
Spencer Dinwiddie takes the top spot here. He was off to a phenomenal start to the year before getting hurt in mid-January, thanks in large part to how frequently he was getting to the line in transition and who looking to score off the bounce in the half court.
Jabari Brown, Sean Kilpatrick, Devyn Marble, and Jordan McRae all showed a knack for absorbing contact as upperclassmen playing key roles for their respective teams. Brown's showing here is fairly notable, as he was mostly considered a spot-up shooter prior to this season.
Among top prospects, Nik Stauskas and P.J. Hairston rank just outside the top-5 here among top prospects. Despite their proclivity to score from the perimeter, both players showed creativity and aggressiveness finishing around the rim. Stauskas' case for being more than just a one-dimensional shooter is bolstered somewhat with his rating here.
Unsurprisingly, we find Andre Dawkins, C.J. Wilcox, and Marcus Eriksson in the bottom-5, as the three prolific shooters did not make sizeable contributions attacking the rim.
Zach LaVine's raw skill level and minor offensive role once against pushes him to the bottom of this list, while Fuquan Edwin is probably the biggest surprise at the bottom of this list. He got to the line at a significantly higher rate a year ago as seemed to rely more heavily on runners this year than looking to take on defenders in the paint.
NBA scouts probably would have liked to see Gary Harris get to the line at a slightly better rate than he did.
Free Throw Attempts Per Possession
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | FTA_POS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | NCAA | 0.58 |
| Jabari Brown | Missouri | NCAA | 0.43 |
| Nik Stauskas | Michigan | NCAA | 0.39 |
| Markel Brown | Oklahoma State | NCAA | 0.39 |
| Jordan Adams | UCLA | NCAA | 0.39 |
| Devyn Marble | Iowa | NCAA | 0.38 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | NCAA | 0.35 |
| Mateusz Ponitka | Oostende | ECUP, BELGIUM | 0.35 |
| Jordan McRae | Tennessee | NCAA | 0.34 |
| P.J. Hairston | Tex Legends | NBADL | 0.33 |
| Nick Johnson | Arizona | NCAA | 0.33 |
| Lamar Patterson | Pittsburgh | NCAA | 0.3 |
| Gary Harris | Michigan State | NCAA | 0.28 |
| Alessandro Gentile | Milano | EURO, ITALY | 0.26 |
| C.J. Wilcox | Washington | NCAA | 0.24 |
| Zach LaVine | UCLA | NCAA | 0.21 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | Partizan | EURO, ADR, SERBIA | 0.2 |
| Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | NCAA | 0.18 |
| Andre Dawkins | Duke | NCAA | 0.18 |
| Marcus Eriksson | Manresa | ACB | 0.16 |
Even though Free Throws Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted tells us how much a player attacks in bulk, it doesn't show how much they attack relative to their usage rate. This stat tells that story.
A few players shift around some here, again indicating the differences in usage among the players.
Nik Stauskas jumps into the top-3 despite the number of his possessions that resulted in jump shots, while Markel Brown takes the fourth spot as his athleticism shines through more clearly on a per-possession basis.
P.J. Hairston drops to the middle of the pack while Gary Harris remains below average here, especially compared with Nik Stauskas, his main competition in the lottery at his position.
The bottom-5 changes very little, with Bogdan Bogdanovic being the only addition. His high usage rate as a distributor and the way the game is officiated overseas plays against him moreso here than in the previous table.
Even when taking usage rate into consideration, Zach LaVine remains below average in this category, which hints at his limitations as a ball-handler in terms of creating his own shot, as well as his slender frame in drawing contact around the basket.
True Shooting Percentage
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | TSPCT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | NCAA | 0.68 |
| Nik Stauskas | Michigan | NCAA | 0.65 |
| Andre Dawkins | Duke | NCAA | 0.64 |
| Jabari Brown | Missouri | NCAA | 0.63 |
| Jordan Adams | UCLA | NCAA | 0.61 |
| P.J. Hairston | Tex Legends | NBADL | 0.6 |
| C.J. Wilcox | Washington | NCAA | 0.6 |
| Markel Brown | Oklahoma State | NCAA | 0.6 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | NCAA | 0.58 |
| Lamar Patterson | Pittsburgh | NCAA | 0.58 |
| Mateusz Ponitka | Oostende | ECUP, BELGIUM | 0.57 |
| Gary Harris | Michigan State | NCAA | 0.57 |
| Jordan McRae | Tennessee | NCAA | 0.56 |
| Marcus Eriksson | Manresa | ACB | 0.56 |
| Nick Johnson | Arizona | NCAA | 0.56 |
| Alessandro Gentile | Milano | EURO, ITALY | 0.55 |
| Zach LaVine | UCLA | NCAA | 0.55 |
| Devyn Marble | Iowa | NCAA | 0.53 |
| Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | NCAA | 0.53 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | Partizan | EURO, ADR, SERBIA | 0.51 |
True Shooting Percentage is adjusted to account for what a player adds to their efficiency and team's point total with free throw attempts and 3-pointers. This stat attempts to adjust for all the ways a player can put points on the board.
This is one of the more interesting categories to look at, especially combined with scoring rate overall, to see those who is both using a large number of possessions and scoring at a very high efficiency. Neither Spencer Dinwiddie nor Nik Stauskas ranked all that high in overall scoring rate, but they were both tremendously efficient last season thanks to how frequently they drew free throws and made perimeter shots relative to their overall usage rates. A 65% true shooting percentage is simply off the charts, and Stauskas being able to do so over the course of an entire season, while being a primary option in the toughest conference in college basketball, is extremely noteworthy.
Andre Dawkins makes an appearances here, and ranked 3rd in scoring rate, showing how much damage he did and how efficiently he did it in a small, but important role off the bench. Underclassmen Jabari Brown and Jordan Adams both rank well here. Adams benefits from his tremendously opportunistic scoring around the rim, particularly in transition, while Brown was very good inside, but just as capable scoring from the perimeter.
Among potential first round picks, P.J. Hairston and C.J. Wilcox rank above average while Gary Harris ranks slightly below average.
It isn't shocking at all to see Bogdanovic in the bottom spot here, as he was clearly playing a bigger role than he should have on a young, injured team without a big budget. He often played outside of his strengths and had a tendency to force the issue badly. Fuquan Edwin and Devyn Marble were the least efficient scorers in this group among major college players, and are joined in the bottom-5 by Zach LaVine, who despite his small role and fast start, wasn't able to continue scoring efficiently as the year wore on.
Assists Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | AST40PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Patterson | Pittsburgh | NCAA | 5.6041 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | Partizan | EURO, ADR, SERBIA | 5.07594642857143 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | NCAA | 4.8104 |
| Devyn Marble | Iowa | NCAA | 4.5176 |
| Alessandro Gentile | Milano | EURO, ITALY | 4.39252307692308 |
| Nik Stauskas | Michigan | NCAA | 3.9308 |
| Nick Johnson | Arizona | NCAA | 3.5423 |
| Gary Harris | Michigan State | NCAA | 3.3559 |
| Jordan McRae | Tennessee | NCAA | 3.1826 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | NCAA | 3.1602 |
| Markel Brown | Oklahoma State | NCAA | 3.1591 |
| Jordan Adams | UCLA | NCAA | 2.9531 |
| C.J. Wilcox | Washington | NCAA | 2.8248 |
| Zach LaVine | UCLA | NCAA | 2.7772 |
| Mateusz Ponitka | Oostende | ECUP, BELGIUM | 2.69444705882353 |
| Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | NCAA | 2.2634 |
| Jabari Brown | Missouri | NCAA | 2.0966 |
| Marcus Eriksson | Manresa | ACB | 1.3161 |
| Andre Dawkins | Duke | NCAA | 1.0789 |
| P.J. Hairston | Tex Legends | NBADL | 1.0009 |
Moving away from the scoring categories, some players who didn't stand out in any of the previous categories immediately jump to the top of the list, indicating the rather noticeable schism between pure scorers and more all-around players in this group.
Lamar Patterson is easily the top passer in this group. Playing on the ball this year more than last year, Patterson has always had very good court vision, but got to make use of it more frequently this season. Bogdan Bogdanovic takes the second spot, as he was not only ask to be his team's first option, but also its primarily ball handler and facilitator, a true rarity for a player his age in the Euroleague.
Spencer Dinwiddie takes the third spot, and his ability to run the point at times is part of his value proposition at the next level. Devyn Marble also saw a good amount of time playing on the ball, and his willingness to find the open man, especially in transition, help him to a top-5 finish here.
Alessandro Gentile, for as aggressive a scorer as he is, has a knack for making the spectacular pass as well. Handling the ball more this year and creating one-on-one regularly, he had some nice moments finding cutters against some of the best competition outside of the NBA.
Nik Stauskas and Gary Harris both finish just outside of the top-5. While neither player is a pure facilitator, both have a tremendous feel for the game and the type of unselfishness that should help them blend in early in their NBA careers.
P.J. Hairston, Andre Dawkins, and Marcus Eriksson were among the most prolific shooters in this group, and none of the three were looking to pass very often with the ball in their hands. Jabari Brown and Fuquan Edwin are the low-men among college prospects. Brown left the shot creating up to Jordan Clarkson while Seton Hall relied very heavily on Edwin's ability to put the ball in the basket in lieu of creating for his teammates.
Turnovers Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | TOV40PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Gentile | Milano | EURO, ITALY | 3.6 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | Partizan | EURO, ADR, SERBIA | 3.5 |
| Mateusz Ponitka | Oostende | ECUP, BELGIUM | 3.4 |
| Lamar Patterson | Pittsburgh | NCAA | 3.4 |
| Jordan McRae | Tennessee | NCAA | 2.8 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | NCAA | 2.6 |
| Jabari Brown | Missouri | NCAA | 2.6 |
| Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | NCAA | 2.5 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | NCAA | 2.3 |
| Nik Stauskas | Michigan | NCAA | 2.2 |
| P.J. Hairston | Tex Legends | NBADL | 2.2 |
| Devyn Marble | Iowa | NCAA | 2.2 |
| Gary Harris | Michigan State | NCAA | 2.1 |
| Nick Johnson | Arizona | NCAA | 2.1 |
| Jordan Adams | UCLA | NCAA | 1.9 |
| C.J. Wilcox | Washington | NCAA | 1.9 |
| Zach LaVine | UCLA | NCAA | 1.8 |
| Markel Brown | Oklahoma State | NCAA | 1.8 |
| Andre Dawkins | Duke | NCAA | 1.6 |
| Marcus Eriksson | Manresa | ACB | 1.5 |
A few things stand out on this list relative to the last, Bogdanovic and Gentile finishing unsurprisingly as the most turnover prone players in this group while Spencer Dinwiddie jumps back to the middle of the pack. Both Dinwiddie, and Devyn Marble, play a uniquely low-mistake brand of basketball for two high scoring players who double as solid passers. Jordan McCrae rounds out the top-5, which is not a shock given that this was his first season playing as big as role as he did offensively.
Among the least mistake prone players are our two spot-up specialists, Marcus Eriksson and Andre Dawkins, followed by Markel Brown, who was quite efficient on the occasions he got to run the point for significant stretches. Zach LaVine's low usage rate and propensity for shooting jumpers helps him here, while C.J. Wilcox's style of play and strong feel for the game kept him out of harm's way here, as he handled the ball a bit more frequently as a senior than in his previous seasons at Washington.
Pure Point Ratio
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | PUREPOINT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | NCAA | 2.4 |
| Devyn Marble | Iowa | NCAA | 2.1 |
| Nik Stauskas | Michigan | NCAA | 1 |
| Lamar Patterson | Pittsburgh | NCAA | 0.9 |
| Markel Brown | Oklahoma State | NCAA | 0.9 |
| Nick Johnson | Arizona | NCAA | 0.6 |
| Gary Harris | Michigan State | NCAA | 0.2 |
| Zach LaVine | UCLA | NCAA | 0.2 |
| Jordan Adams | UCLA | NCAA | 0.2 |
| C.J. Wilcox | Washington | NCAA | 0 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | Partizan | EURO, ADR, SERBIA | -0.4 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | NCAA | -1.2 |
| Marcus Eriksson | Manresa | ACB | -1.6 |
| Jordan McRae | Tennessee | NCAA | -1.7 |
| Alessandro Gentile | Milano | EURO, ITALY | -1.7 |
| Andre Dawkins | Duke | NCAA | -2.2 |
| Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | NCAA | -2.4 |
| Jabari Brown | Missouri | NCAA | -2.9 |
| P.J. Hairston | Tex Legends | NBADL | -3.8 |
| Mateusz Ponitka | Oostende | ECUP, BELGIUM | -4.1 |
Looking at the prior two categories combined and then adjusted for the negative value of the turnover, Spencer Dinwiddie and Devyn Marble both finish well ahead of the rest of this group. Nik Stauskas, Lamar Patterson, and Markel Brown headline the rest of the top-5. The first two players for their assist rates and Brown because of his low turnover rate.
Gary Harris and Nick Johnson sit just outside of the top-3, and while neither played a ton of point guard this year, both were fairly efficient creating off the ball for the elite programs they suited up for.
Mateusz Ponitka takes the bottom spot here because of his extremely high turnover rate. P.J. Hairston and Andre Dawkins's lack of productivity as passers play against them, while the relatively high turnover and low assist rates for Fuquan Edwin and Jabari Brown place them in the bottom-5 as well. Zach Lavine's .2 PPR leaves little room for optimism regarding his ability to play point guard in the NBA.
Rebounds Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | REB40PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Adams | UCLA | NCAA | 6.8 |
| Lamar Patterson | Pittsburgh | NCAA | 6.4 |
| Mateusz Ponitka | Oostende | ECUP, BELGIUM | 6 |
| Markel Brown | Oklahoma State | NCAA | 5.7 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | NCAA | 5.4 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | Partizan | EURO, ADR, SERBIA | 5.2 |
| Nick Johnson | Arizona | NCAA | 5.1 |
| Alessandro Gentile | Milano | EURO, ITALY | 5 |
| Gary Harris | Michigan State | NCAA | 5 |
| Jabari Brown | Missouri | NCAA | 4.9 |
| Jordan McRae | Tennessee | NCAA | 4.7 |
| Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | NCAA | 4.6 |
| P.J. Hairston | Tex Legends | NBADL | 4.3 |
| C.J. Wilcox | Washington | NCAA | 4.2 |
| Devyn Marble | Iowa | NCAA | 4.1 |
| Zach LaVine | UCLA | NCAA | 4 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | NCAA | 3.9 |
| Andre Dawkins | Duke | NCAA | 3.9 |
| Nik Stauskas | Michigan | NCAA | 3.5 |
| Marcus Eriksson | Manresa | ACB | 3 |
Rebounding is an important aspect of the game, and while some guards are seldom asked to head down into the paint and make their presence felt in traffic, other, have the length, athleticism, toughness, and timing to make an impact in the possession battle on the glass. With that said, it's important to recognize that some of this stat is systematic.
Jordan Adams, Lamar Patterson, and Mateusz Ponitka were three of the more powerful guards in this group, so it is not a shock that they take the top 3 spots. Markel Brown isn't far behind despite his lack of tremendous size. A freak athlete with great length, Brown did a nice job helping Oklahoma State's bigs on the glass after Michael Cobbins got hurt. Sean Kilpatrick, as we've seen throughout these tables, did everything for Cincinnati.
Marcus Eriksson and Nik Stauskas are the least prolific rebounders in this group, as both lack strength, length and athleticism. Zach LaVine is one of the most impressive leapers to come out of the college ranks in some time, but his lack of strength was likely a limiting factor on the glass as well. Andre Dawkins had a similarly small impact despite Duke's lack of big men. Spencer Dinwiddie takes the fourth to last spot as he was often getting in position to receive the outlet pass rather than boxing out and crashing the boards.
Steals Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | STL40PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | NCAA | 3.6 |
| Jordan Adams | UCLA | NCAA | 3.3 |
| Mateusz Ponitka | Oostende | ECUP, BELGIUM | 2.7 |
| Devyn Marble | Iowa | NCAA | 2.3 |
| Gary Harris | Michigan State | NCAA | 2.2 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | NCAA | 2 |
| P.J. Hairston | Tex Legends | NBADL | 1.9 |
| Lamar Patterson | Pittsburgh | NCAA | 1.9 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | NCAA | 1.8 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | Partizan | EURO, ADR, SERBIA | 1.7 |
| Nick Johnson | Arizona | NCAA | 1.4 |
| Zach LaVine | UCLA | NCAA | 1.4 |
| Andre Dawkins | Duke | NCAA | 1.3 |
| Alessandro Gentile | Milano | EURO, ITALY | 1.3 |
| C.J. Wilcox | Washington | NCAA | 1.1 |
| Markel Brown | Oklahoma State | NCAA | 1.1 |
| Jordan McRae | Tennessee | NCAA | 0.9 |
| Marcus Eriksson | Manresa | ACB | 0.7 |
| Jabari Brown | Missouri | NCAA | 0.7 |
| Nik Stauskas | Michigan | NCAA | 0.7 |
A shooting guard's ability to apply ball pressure and get in the passing lanes often helps his team quicken the pace of the game without forcing the issue. Though there's a million ways to create a turnover, this stat paints a broad picture of what a prospect brings to the table both physically in terms of quickness and length and mentally in terms of intensity and anticipation. Many analytics-based metrics use this stat heavily as part of their formula to decipher how effectively players will transition from college to the NBA, as it has reportedly proven to be quite telling throughout the years.
Fuquan Edwin and Jordan Adams take the top two spots here. Despite not possessing the longest wingspan, Edwin has proven to be quite prolific disrupting the passing lanes with his terrific quickness and anticipation skills. Adams, in contrast, doesn't have great lateral speed, but is aggressive, instinctive, and has very quick hands and long arms. Mateusz Ponitka's intensity and motor help him here, while Devyn Marble's ability to use his length lands him the 4th spot. Gary Harris makes his first top-5 appearance, and as much as he hasn't stood out in this study, it is worth noting that he played hurt for stretches and does a lot of the little things, which shows up a bit here. A fundamentally sound defender, Harris is not overly aggressive hunting for steals, but does a nice job reading the ball handler and positioning himself to make plays.
On the other end of the spectrum, Nik Stauskas and Jabari Brown forced very few turnovers this season. Stauskas is just an average athlete, and does not possess great length, while Brown did not play on a team that really got after it defensively. Marcus Eriksson takes the third-to-last spot as one of the more physically limited players on this list, while Jordan McRae and Markel Brown are somewhat surprising additions to the bottom-5. Neither player forced many turnovers, but both played very solid individual defense for stretches. Brown could stand to play with a bigger sense of urgency on this end of the floor, while McRae plays with good intensity, but will need to get stronger to prepare himself for the next level.
Blocks Per-40 Pace Adjusted
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | BLK40PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan McRae | Tennessee | NCAA | 1.4 |
| Markel Brown | Oklahoma State | NCAA | 1.1 |
| C.J. Wilcox | Washington | NCAA | 1.1 |
| Nick Johnson | Arizona | NCAA | 0.8 |
| Gary Harris | Michigan State | NCAA | 0.5 |
| P.J. Hairston | Tex Legends | NBADL | 0.5 |
| Andre Dawkins | Duke | NCAA | 0.4 |
| Lamar Patterson | Pittsburgh | NCAA | 0.4 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | Partizan | EURO, ADR, SERBIA | 0.4 |
| Nik Stauskas | Michigan | NCAA | 0.4 |
| Alessandro Gentile | Milano | EURO, ITALY | 0.3 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | NCAA | 0.3 |
| Devyn Marble | Iowa | NCAA | 0.3 |
| Mateusz Ponitka | Oostende | ECUP, BELGIUM | 0.3 |
| Marcus Eriksson | Manresa | ACB | 0.3 |
| Zach LaVine | UCLA | NCAA | 0.3 |
| Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | NCAA | 0.2 |
| Jordan Adams | UCLA | NCAA | 0.2 |
| Jabari Brown | Missouri | NCAA | 0.2 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | NCAA | 0 |
Interestingly, two of the least prolific turnover forcing shooting guards are the two best shot blockers. Jordan McRae's length bothered jump shooters regularly this year while Markel Brown was capable of challenging shots both inside and outside with his outstanding leaping ability. Nick Johnson ranks well for similar reasons. While Gary Harris takes a top-5 spot thanks to his intensity and intelligence on the defensive end. C.J. Wilcox is the surprise in the top-5, as he isn't known as a great defender, but does possess an impressive 6-10 wingspan.
Sean Kilpatrick takes the bottom spot here, but spreadheaded one of the nation's best defensive units. Jordan Adams and Fuquan Edwin came up with a lot of steals, but their lack of vertical explosiveness limited their ability to block shots. The same isn't true for Zach LaVine, who obviously has a ton of room to grow as a player both offensively and defensively to translate his otherworldly explosive into actual production on the basketball court.
Player Efficiency Rating
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | PER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Adams | UCLA | NCAA | 28.7 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | NCAA | 26.7 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | NCAA | 25.1 |
| Lamar Patterson | Pittsburgh | NCAA | 24.6 |
| Jordan McRae | Tennessee | NCAA | 23.6 |
| Nik Stauskas | Michigan | NCAA | 22.9 |
| Devyn Marble | Iowa | NCAA | 22.9 |
| Gary Harris | Michigan State | NCAA | 22.9 |
| Andre Dawkins | Duke | NCAA | 22.8 |
| Markel Brown | Oklahoma State | NCAA | 22.4 |
| C.J. Wilcox | Washington | NCAA | 22.4 |
| Jabari Brown | Missouri | NCAA | 22.3 |
| Nick Johnson | Arizona | NCAA | 21.8 |
| Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | NCAA | 20.5 |
| P.J. Hairston | Tex Legends | NBADL | 19.2 |
| Mateusz Ponitka | Oostende | ECUP, BELGIUM | 18.1 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | Partizan | EURO, ADR, SERBIA | 17.6 |
| Alessandro Gentile | Milano | EURO, ITALY | 16.1 |
| Zach LaVine | UCLA | NCAA | 14.9 |
| Marcus Eriksson | Manresa | ACB | 14.3 |
Created by John Hollinger, PER is a total measure of what a player does on the floor based on more than a dozen weighted calculations. It isn't always wise to compare players across different leagues given how different the style of play is internationally and at the college level. The NCAA is especially tricky considering the varying levels of competition we find in the different conferences. As maligned as the countless catch-all statistics out there are, PER specifically provides an interesting glimpse into how all of the statistics we've looked at thus far piece together.
Jordan Adams takes the top spot here by a sizeable margin thanks to his prolific scoring, rebounding, and ability to create turnovers. Sean Kilpatrick gets his due, finally, as he quietly kept Cincinnati relevant all year, carrying the team for stretches doing whatever they asked of him. Spencer Dinwiddie takes the third spot thanks to his efficiency and passer, while Lamar Patterson and Jordan McRae performed admirably in increased roles to round out the top-5.
Among top prospects, Nik Stauskas and Gary Harris sit just outside of the top-5. Both players had outstanding seasons, but Stauskas was limited in a few areas statistically and Harris didn't truly standout in many offensive categories.
The bottom-5 is filled with European players as their youth relative to their respective levels of competition show here. Zach LaVine is the lone college player below 20, actually falling behind the built in average of 15. LaVine is one of the biggest enigmas of this draft. While he may not look great on paper, LaVine had some flashes of brilliance making highlight reel plays in transition as well as in the Combine and workout setting. It will be interesting to look back at his placements here after he's spent a few years in the NBA.
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