-Situational Statistics: the 2013 Power Forward Crop
-Situational Statistics: the 2013 Small Forward Crop
-Just By the Numbers: the 2013 Small Forward Crop
-Just By the Numbers: the 2013 Shooting Guard Crop
-Situational Statistics: the 2013 Shooting Guard Crop
-Just By the Numbers: the 2013 Point Guard Crop
-Situational Statistics: the 2013 Point Guard Crop
While as many as three of the power forwards we looked at in this study could get drafted in the lottery, there is very little separation after that. It's possible that not even a single power forward gets picked after that in the first round, which makes this an interesting group to analyze and compare their strengths and weaknesses on paper.
A key component of the game of basketball, statistics are both exalted for their comprehensiveness and condemned for their ridiculousness. There are an unlimited number of ways to evaluate a player on paper, with each seemingly generating non-stop debate over its value. In recent seasons, Synergy Sports Technology and other companies have brought on a new generation of statistics in basketball, and along with the likes of John Hollinger and Dean Oliver, have changed the way NBA teams evaluate prospects.
Accounting for every jumper missed on a fast break, pick and roll from the top of key, and bad pass in crunch time, the data at the disposal of NBA decision-makers seems to get deeper almost daily. As statistics become more advanced, you can even start to predict what areas a college player may struggle in moving forward based on what their numbers in college or where they may still have upside.
As we get further and further away from the actual season that was played between November and April, we tend to forget at times how productive prospects actually were on their individual teams between all the talk about wingspans and upside and performance in private workouts and such.
With that in mind, we're running a simple analysis of how all the top prospects in this draft compare in all the different facets of the game statistically that matter at their individual position, which should help us identify red-flags, learn more about the strengths and weaknesses of each prospects and evaluate how they compare with each other.
We continue with the power forward crop.
Points Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Jackie Carmichael||NCAA||Illinois State||21.6|
|Kenny Kadji||NCAA||Miami FL||18.3|
|C.J. Leslie||NCAA||N.C. State||17.9|
|Joffrey Lauvergne||EL, ECup, ADR, FRA, SER||Partizan/Valencia/Chalon||16.8|
|Tony Mitchell||NCAA||North Texas||15.8|
|Richard Howell||NCAA||N.C. State||15.5|
|Augusto Cesar Lima||Euroleague, ACB||Malaga||10.9|
This stat tells us plainly how often these power forwards put the ball in the basket, adjusting for minutes played and pace, which levels the playing field as best as we can without taking into account competition level, individual team roles, and teammates into consideration. This is a good place to start with this group of players, as it tells us about their versatility, the range of roles they played last season, and a little bit about each prospect's mentality.
It's no surprise to see some of the more highly touted power forwards ranking towards the top of this chart, with Kelly Olynyk leading the way with an impressive 27.7, as he scored efficiently as the focal point of the Gonzaga offense. The fluid 7-footer displayed his ability to score in a variety of ways, making huge improvements in his scoring arsenal after sitting out as a redshirt in 2011-2012. He ranks as the second best overall scorer in this entire draft class in fact after C.J. McCollum, who only played 12 games.
After Brandon Davies, the next tier of players consists of projected lottery picks, Cody Zeller and Anthony Bennett, who both did their damage in different ways. Zeller primarily stayed in or near for paint for the Hoosiers functioning as a center, and NBA teams will want to see more of outside shot and perimeter skill set, as his lack of length will likely make him less effective around the rim on both ends at the NBA level. Bennett, on the other hand, showed his ability to score from 3-point range but also showed a tendency to float at times and rely a bit too much on his jumper. Nevertheless, it was impressive to see a freshman scoring so easily as Bennett did this season.
Jackie Carmichael and Brandon Davies also averaged more than a point every two minutes, as the two seniors developed very nicely over the course of their four year careers, utilizing their mature frames and skill sets to become two of the best Non-BCS big men in the country.
Tony Mitchell lags well behind the pack here, despite not playing in a very strong conference or alongside other overly skilled players.
Ranking towards the bottom were Andre Roberson and Arsalan Kazemi, both undersized power forwards who played complimentary roles on the offensive end, as their teams relied more on them to provide energy and rebounding. Grant Jerrett fell close to the bottom as well, as the freshman showed his potential as an outside shooter but struggled to contribute in other ways and took a backseat to others on a talented Arizona team.
Augusto Cesar Lima actually ranked last in the category, using his statistics from the ACB and Euroleague, as the big man is still a very limited player offensively at this stage.
True Shooting Percentage
|Joffrey Lauvergne||EL, ECup, ADR, FRA, SER||Partizan/Valencia/Chalon||62.3|
|Richard Howell||NCAA||N.C. State||59.4|
|Jackie Carmichael||NCAA||Illinois State||57.6|
|Kenny Kadji||NCAA||Miami FL||56.5|
|C.J. Leslie||NCAA||N.C. State||55.9|
|Tony Mitchell||NCAA||North Texas||53|
|Augusto Cesar Lima||Euroleague, ACB||Malaga||46.6|
True Shooting Percentage is adjusted to account for what a player adds to their efficiency and team's point total with free throw attempts and 3-pointers. This stat attempts to adjust for all the ways a player can put points on the board. A player who makes 4/10 3-pointers contributes the same amount of points as a player who made 6/10 2-pointers, something that show up in the traditional field goal percentage stat (which would have the 3-point shooter at 40% FG% and the 2-point shooter at 60% FG%). This stat attempts to adjust for that.
Kelly Olynyk once again comes out on top here, further illustrating his skill and efficiency on the offensive end. He actually ranks first overall among all college players in fact, showing just how impressive of a season he had offensively. While he attempted less than one 3-pointer per game, his 66% on 2P% was excellent and his 78% from the free throw line was very good as well, particularly for a big man.
The next group of players, all in the 60% to 65% range, all bring different skill sets to the table as power forwards, showing the different types of players at that position today. Erik Murphy and Christian Watford are both stretch-4's who took a large amount of their shots from behind the 3-point arc and showed the ability to knock them down consistently. Arsalan Kazemi is in this group as well and was efficient in his limited scoring opportunities, while Anthony Bennett and Cody Zeller were efficient as the go-to scorers for their teams.
It takes a very high skill level to be both prolific and highly efficient as a scorer, so it's easy to see why NBA scouts like Olynyk, Zeller and Bennett as much as they do.
Joffrey Lauvergne also showed his ability to be efficient in an important role for Partizan in the Adriatic and Serbian leagues, which is impressive relative to the competition he faced.
Augusto Cesar Lima once again ranked last here, further illustrating his lack of skill level on the offensive end, while Tony Mitchell, Grant Jerrett, Amath M'Baye, and Andre Roberson all fell below 55%. Jerrett actually attempted more 3s than 2s as a freshman, but shot a very poor 41% inside the arc, while Mitchell, M'Baye, and Roberson all attempted more than one 3-pointer per game but all connected on less than 30% of their attempts, perhaps trying too hard to prove they can shoot from the perimeter rather than playing to their strengths.
Free Throw Attempts Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Jackie Carmichael||NCAA||Illinois State||8.1|
|C.J. Leslie||NCAA||N.C. State||7.9|
|Tony Mitchell||NCAA||North Texas||5.8|
|Joffrey Lauvergne||EL, ECup, ADR, FRA, SER||Partizan/Valencia/Chalon||5.7|
|Kenny Kadji||NCAA||Miami FL||4.9|
|Richard Howell||NCAA||N.C. State||4.2|
|Augusto Cesar Lima||Euroleague, ACB||Malaga||3.2|
This statistic gives us an idea of which power forwards attack the rim, embrace contact, and possess a high level of skill and aggressiveness to draw fouls from the perimeter and inside the paint.
Cody Zeller leads the way here, thanks to the role he played as the lone big man for the Hoosiers. He did have some trouble finishing over length, but he didn't shy away from contact, and he showed his willingness to attack the basket. His ability to create in one on one situations is one of his strongest selling points as a prospect.
Kelly Olynyk, Brandon Davies and Jackie Carmichael once again grade out well here, unsurprisingly, as they all played more of a traditional big man role as the focal point of their team's offense, and have the skill-level and polish needed to draw fouls inside the paint.
C.J. Leslie's excellent athleticism and ability to beat his man off the dribble finally starts to shine through somewhat here, as he drew nearly eight free throws per-40, a very solid rate.
Trevor Mbakwe is not an overly skilled big man, but his quickness and aggressiveness made him a magnet for drawing fouls in the Big Ten thanks to his sheer tenacity.
Grant Jerrett comes in last in this statistic, which makes sense, as he played more on the perimeter on offense, spotting up at the 3-point line, rather than mixing it up in the paint. Erik Murphy was also towards the bottom, as he also played more of the stretch-4 role at Florida.
Augusto Cesar Lima once again finished in the bottom tier here, and Andre Roberson also struggled to get to the free throw line at a high rate.
Three Point Attempts per-40 Pace Adjusted
|Kenny Kadji||NCAA||Miami FL||5.3|
|Tony Mitchell||NCAA||North Texas||3.9|
|Joffrey Lauvergne||EL, ECup, ADR, FRA, SER||Partizan/Valencia/Chalon||1.6|
|Augusto Cesar Lima||Euroleague, ACB||Malaga||1.2|
|Jackie Carmichael||NCAA||Illinois State||0.4|
|C.J. Leslie||NCAA||N.C. State||0.2|
|Richard Howell||NCAA||N.C. State||0|
This stat gives us an idea on the type of role each prospect played last season as well as the confidence they may have as an outside shooter. It's no surprise to see Erik Murphy on top by a fairly wide margin, as his intrigue as an NBA prospect centers around his ability to space the floor and shoot from the 3-point line from the power forward position. The fact that he was able to convert as many 3-pointers as he did at 6-11 gives him a very good chance of hearing his name called on draft night.
The next group of players in this category are other potential stretch-4 prospects including Ryan Kelly, Grant Jerrett, Christian Watford, and Kenny Kadji, all of whom showed their ability to shoot the ball from behind the arc in college. Anthony Bennett showed his 3-point range as well and falls in the group, along with Tony Mitchell, who would probably have a lower number here ideally, as NBA scouts would have liked to see him spending more time utilizing his physical tools to attack the rim, rather than hoisting up 3-pointers.
Arsalan Kazemi, Jamelle Hagins, Richard Howell and Trevor Mbakwe stayed away from 3-pointers completely, none of them even attempting one on the season, which can be looked at as a positive thing, as each of them played more to their strengths.
Other big men who played primarily in the paint also attempted less than one 3-pointer per game including Jackie Carmichael, Brandon Davies, Cody Zeller, and CJ Leslie.
Offensive Rebounds Per-40 Pace Adjusted
|Richard Howell||NCAA||N.C. State||4.6|
|Joffrey Lauvergne||EL, ECup, ADR, FRA, SER||Partizan/Valencia/Chalon||3.46|
|Augusto Cesar Lima||Euroleague, ACB||Malaga||3.38|
|Jackie Carmichael||NCAA||Illinois State||3.1|
|Tony Mitchell||NCAA||North Texas||3|
|Kenny Kadji||NCAA||Miami FL||2.2|
|C.J. Leslie||NCAA||N.C. State||2.2|
This statistic simply shows us which prospects were able to be effective on the offensive glass, earning put-backs and extra possessions for their team. The type of role that they played offensively is a factor here as well, as the players who spend more time around the rim have more opportunities to crash the offensive boards.
Trevor Mbakwe leads the way here by a large margin, as he does an excellent job attacking the offensive glass, pursuing the ball aggressively and using his mature frame and energy. Richard Howell comes next as another player whose calling card as an NBA prospect will be rebounding. Both Mbakwe and Howell are undersized and less skilled than many of the others in this group, but their tremendous work on the offensive boards gives them an NBA skill to hang their hat on.
There is a fairly big drop-off after this. The next tier of prospects in the category is made up by Jamelle Hagins, 7-footers Cody Zeller and Kelly Olynyk, as well as Arsalan Kazemi and Andre Roberson, who are both undersized but will hope that NBA teams can overlook that and focus on the energy and rebounding that they can potentially bring to a team.
Joffrey Lauvergne did a solid job crashing the offensive glass to compliment his ability to score at an efficient rate.
Ranking towards the bottom of the list, we see some of the power forwards who spend more of their time on the perimeter, including Christian Watford, CJ Leslie, Ryan Kelly, Kenny Kadi, Erik Murphy, and Grant Jerrett.
Defensive Rebounds Per-40 Pace Adjusted
|Richard Howell||NCAA||N.C. State||8.6|
|Jackie Carmichael||NCAA||Illinois State||8.4|
|Kenny Kadji||NCAA||Miami FL||7.4|
|Tony Mitchell||NCAA||North Texas||7.2|
|Joffrey Lauvergne||EL, ECup, ADR, FRA, SER||Partizan/Valencia/Chalon||6.6|
|C.J. Leslie||NCAA||N.C. State||6.5|
|Augusto Cesar Lima||Euroleague, ACB||Malaga||6|
This stat shows us which players protected the defensive glass and closed out possessions for their teams. Most of the names we discussed in the offensive rebounding category also feature prominently here, but in very different order. Andre Roberson actually comes out on top, followed by Arsalan Kazemi and Jamelle Hagins. All three of these players have the speed and quickness to defend face-up fours away from the basket, and although they lack the ideal size and bulk for the power forward position, their ability to collect defensive rebounds helps their case tremendously.
Richard Howell and Trevor Mbakwe both grade out near the top again, which is no surprise as they are all well-known rebounding specialists.
The weakest defensive rebounders by the metric are Grant Jerrett, Amath M'Baye, and Ryan Kelly, who finishes last. This is a concern for M'Baye, who also lacks the ideal size and girth for the position, while Jerrett and Kelly both appear to need to add strength to their frame and will need to prove they can compete on the defensive end and on the boards at the NBA level.
Blocks Per-40 Pace Adjusted
|Tony Mitchell||NCAA||North Texas||3.3|
|Jackie Carmichael||NCAA||Illinois State||2.5|
|Kenny Kadji||NCAA||Miami FL||1.8|
|C.J. Leslie||NCAA||N.C. State||1.5|
|Richard Howell||NCAA||N.C. State||1.1|
|Joffrey Lauvergne||EL, ECup, ADR, FRA, SER||Partizan/Valencia/Chalon||0.7|
|Augusto Cesar Lima||Euroleague, ACB||Malaga||0.7|
This statistic gives an idea of players' size, length, and shot-blocking instincts and can be a telling athletic marker as well. Tony Mitchell is the clear standout out here, displaying his potential upside, as he has all of the physical tools needed to excel at the NBA level.
Jamelle Hagins ranks second in this category, followed by Trevor Mbakwe and Jackie Carmichael, as each player possesses solid athleticism and wingspans over 7-feet.
Ryan Kelly and Grant Jerrett each do fairly well here as well, as Kelly's size and instincts enabled him to block shots at a solid rate at the college level, while Jerrett's ranking here gives an indication of his potential to improve defensively as he gets older if he can add strength, play tougher, and display better defensive fundamentals, as he has good size, length, and instincts.
The only players who averaged less than one block per-40 pace adjusted were Christian Watford, Arsalan Kazemi, Joffrey Lauvergne and Augusto Cesar Lima.
Steals Per-40 Pace adjusted
|Richard Howell||NCAA||N.C. State||1.3|
|Tony Mitchell||NCAA||North Texas||1.2|
|Jackie Carmichael||NCAA||Illinois State||1.2|
|C.J. Leslie||NCAA||N.C. State||1.2|
|Joffrey Lauvergne||EL, ECup, ADR, FRA, SER||Partizan/Valencia/Chalon||1|
|Kenny Kadji||NCAA||Miami FL||0.6|
|Augusto Cesar Lima||Euroleague, ACB||Malaga||0.6|
Steals can be used as another indicator of a prospect's athleticism and length, as well as his anticipation skills and instincts. The defensive scheme and principles of the team they played on can also be a factor here, in terms of how aggressively coaches want their teams to play on the defensive end.
The undersized, athletic duo of Arsalan Kazemi and Andre Roberson grade out far better here than the rest of the power forwards, showing the energy and athleticism that they bring to the table.
Most of the rest of the pack rates pretty similarly in this category with overseas prospects Joffrey Lauvergne, Augusto Cesar Lima collecting less than one steal per-40 pace adjusted, along with college prospects Kenny Kadji, Ryan Kelly, and Christian Watford.
Assists Per-40 Pace Adjusted
|Richard Howell||NCAA||N.C. State||2.1|
|C.J. Leslie||NCAA||N.C. State||1.7|
|Joffrey Lauvergne||EL, ECup, ADR, FRA, SER||Partizan/Valencia/Chalon||1.5|
|Kenny Kadji||NCAA||Miami FL||1.2|
|Jackie Carmichael||NCAA||Illinois State||1.1|
|Tony Mitchell||NCAA||North Texas||0.9|
|Augusto Cesar Lima||Euroleague, ACB||Malaga||0.6|
Assists gives us an idea of the role each power forward played on their teams, as well as their feel for the game, court vision, and willingness to share the ball. Brandon Davies ranks highest here as he showed his basketball IQ and ability to pass out of the post. It's no surprise that Kelly Olynyk comes in second, as he displays a very high basketball IQ and has the passing instincts from playing as more of a perimeter-oriented player earlier in his career.
Deep-shooting four-men Ryan Kelly and Erik Murphy rank highly, as both displayed their willingness to share the ball and find other open shooters, while Richard Howell also comes in at just over 2 assists per-40 pace adjusted.
Tony Mitchell ranks second from the bottom in assists, further illustrating his lack of understanding for the game at this stage, while Augusto Cesar Lima comes in last, which isn't a surprise either, considering his lack of polish.
|C.J. Leslie||NCAA||N.C. State||18.2|
|Augusto Cesar Lima||Euroleague, ACB||Malaga||17.5|
|Tony Mitchell||NCAA||North Texas||16.7|
|Joffrey Lauvergne||EL, ECup, ADR, FRA, SER||Partizan/Valencia/Chalon||16.3|
|Jackie Carmichael||NCAA||Illinois State||13.4|
|Kenny Kadji||NCAA||Miami FL||13.3|
|Richard Howell||NCAA||N.C. State||13.2|
This stat only accounts for possessions a player used in his time on the court, which is important considering higher usage player will always have more opportunities to turn the ball over due to their important role on the floor.
Trevor Mbakwe leads the pack here, as Minnesota probably needed more scoring out of him than he was ready to shoulder considering his relatively unpolished skill-level. In the NBA he would likely be asked to be more of a Reggie Evans-style hustle player, but it's important that he improve on his ability to play mistake-free basketball.
Jamelle Hagins and Andre Roberson were also asked to play heavier offensive roles than they were ready for most likely based on their standing here. C.J. Leslie is one of the most athletic players in this draft, but his lack of perimeter shooting ability made him fairly predictable with his slashing game, rendering him very turnover prone this season.
On the other end of the spectrum, Ryan Kelly, Grant Jerrett and Erik Murphy are smart players who didn't have too many opportunities to make mistakes in their roles as stretch power forwards offensively.
It's interesting to see Anthony Bennett rate so well here considering he was a freshman who was extremely aggressive offensively putting the ball on the floor and creating his own shot.
Pure Point Rating
|Richard Howell||NCAA||N.C. State||-1.47|
|Joffrey Lauvergne||EL, ECup, ADR, FRA, SER||Partizan/Valencia/Chalon||-3.48|
|Kenny Kadji||NCAA||Miami FL||-4.22|
|Augusto Cesar Lima||Euroleague, ACB||Malaga||-5.41|
|Jackie Carmichael||NCAA||Illinois State||-5.48|
|C.J. Leslie||NCAA||N.C. State||-6|
|Tony Mitchell||NCAA||North Texas||-6|
Developed by John Hollinger, Pure Point Rating takes a look at a players overall passing value, weighing turnovers as slightly more detrimental than assists are helpful.
Intelligent role-players with compact roles like Ryan Kelly, Grant Jerrett and Erik Murphy are in the top five of this group, as they played relatively mistake-free basketball.
It's interesting to see Richard Howell and Arsalan Kazemi grade out so well, as we think of them mostly as hustling energy guys, but it turns out they contributed to their teams in other ways as well.
Tony Mitchell, C.J. Leslie and Trevor Mbakwe rank out in the bottom three. All three are extremely athletic physical specimens who must improve on their decision making skills, understanding of the game and overall polish to find success in the NBA.
|Jackie Carmichael||NCAA||Illinois State||28.8|
|C.J. Leslie||NCAA||N.C. State||25.7|
|Kenny Kadji||NCAA||Miami FL||24.7|
|Tony Mitchell||NCAA||North Texas||23.2|
|Richard Howell||NCAA||N.C. State||19.8|
|Joffrey Lauvergne||EL, ECup, ADR, FRA, SER||Partizan/Valencia/Chalon||19.6|
|Augusto Cesar Lima||Euroleague, ACB||Malaga||17.5|
On this metric, we attempt to look at what percentage of a team's possessions a player used while on the court. This is a good metric to try to gauge the role a player played on the team, as well as to use in parallel with other per-minute metrics to see how impactful a player was with the possessions he used.
Kelly Olynyk was not only the most efficient scorer in college basketball last season, he also had one of the biggest offensive roles. This combination is a major reason why he rates so highly in many analytic models.
Brandon Davies and Jackie Carmichael both shouldered significant roles for non-BCS conference teams, even if they were not able to lead their team to the NCAA Tournament.
The other two lottery prospect candidates in this group, Anthony Bennett and Cody Zeller, were also counted on heavily for scoring by their teams as we find here.
Arsalan Kazemi and Grant Jerrett played the smallest offensive roles of any of the players in this group.
Player Efficiency Rating
|Jackie Carmichael||NCAA||Illinois State||27.6|
|Richard Howell||NCAA||N.C. State||25.3|
|Kenny Kadji||NCAA||Miami FL||21.7|
|Tony Mitchell||NCAA||North Texas||20.9|
|C.J. Leslie||NCAA||N.C. State||20.4|
|Joffrey Lauvergne||EL, ECup, ADR, FRA, SER||Partizan/Valencia/Chalon||18.5|
|Augusto Cesar Lima||Euroleague, ACB||Malaga||9.14|
Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a calculation derived by John Hollinger (previously of ESPN, now the Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies) which attempts to combine various metrics (including both positive and negative tallies) to create a single value.
There are some drawbacks to PER, most of which Hollinger has readily admitted to, and he has stated the PER was never intended to be a final answer to a players impact. Some of these drawbacks include poorly measuring a player's defensive impact, as steals and blocks are the only metrics it uses on the defensive end, neither of which necessarily accurately display a players impact on that end of the court. It has also been argued that it can overvalue rebounders to a degree and. Perhaps most importantly, comparing a players PER to players in a different league creates considerable noise, as differences in rules and level of competition can impact the values substantially.
The top three prospects in this group, Kelly Olynk, Cody Zeller and Anthony Bennett, all grade out in the top three in this statistic as well. Olynyk rates far ahead of the pack, though, showing just how dominant of a season he had for Gonzaga. He actually ranks #1 in PER among all draft prospects.
Jackie Carmichael and Brandon Davies are both neck and neck here once again towards the top.
Grant Jerrett and Amath M'Baye rank last among college players, while Augusto Cesar Lima is last overall.