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How would the 2014 NBA Draft Look Based Solely Off RSCI Rankings?

How would the 2014 NBA Draft Look Based Solely Off RSCI Rankings?
May 14, 2014, 08:36 am
Going into college, we already have a decent picture of how the high school recruiting services (Scout.com, Rivals, ESPN, etc) viewed prospects' talent-level and potential thanks to the RSCI. The RSCI (recruiting service consensus index) attempts to encapsulate the average rankings of all the major high school recruiting services into one handy number.

Historically speaking, the RSCI matters, as it gives us a glimmer of insight into how prospects were viewed previous to entering college. There are many cases of talented players underachieving in college and seeing their NBA draft stock fall significantly, due to a variety of reasons.

Sometimes these players end up having the last laugh, though, as they are able to “rediscover” the talent that got recruiting services so excited about them early on in their career later on, which resulted in a NBA team getting a steal.

Players like Josh McRoberts (RSCI #2 2005, #37 pick 2007), Monta Ellis (RSCI #3 2005, #40 pick 2005), Andray Blatche (RSCI #4 2005, #49 pick 2005), Kyle Singler (RSCI #6 2007, #33 pick 2011), Louis Williams (RSCI #7 2005, #45 pick 2005), Lance Stephenson (RSCI #7 2009, #40 pick 2010), Chase Budinger (RSCI #7 2006, #44 pick 2009), Mario Chalmers (RSCI #10 2005, #34 pick 2008), Carlos Boozer (RSCI #9 1999, #35 pick 2002), DeAndre Jordan (RSCI #14 2007, #35 pick 2008), Mo Williams (RSCI #17 2003, #47 pick 2003), Amir Johnson (RSCI #17 2005, #56 pick 2005) and Trevor Ariza (RSCI #21 2003, #43 pick 2004) are some of the more notable examples of highly touted RSCIers who ended up being drafted in the second round and significantly exceeded where they were picked.

That's not to say that this happens consistently or even frequently, as the various RSCI lists throughout the years are littered with players who amounted to very little at both the college and pro level, regardless of where they were drafted (they are getting better every year, though).

It's just another variable to be aware of in a player's evaluation and evolution, as understanding as much as possible about their background and realizing why they were (or weren't) held in such high esteem early on in their career is important information that helps in trying to decipher how they arrived to where they are today.

With that in mind, here's what the 2014 NBA Draft class would look like if the players were picked SOLELY off their RSCI ranking going into college. Keep in mind that no international (non-North American) players are here, as they were not evaluated by the high school recruiting services for obvious reasons. 15 international players are currently projected to be drafted in our latest 2014 Mock Draft.

"PICK"DX-100RSCI PLAYER Class TEAM AGE
111 Andrew Wiggins Freshman Kansas 19.2
242 Julius Randle Freshman Kentucky 19.4
393 Aaron Gordon Freshman Arizona 18.6
4173 Kyle Anderson Sophomore UCLA 20.6
5354 Isaiah Austin Sophomore Baylor 20.5
635 Jabari Parker Freshman Duke 19.1
7596 James McAdoo Junior North Carolina 21.3
869 Marcus Smart Sophomore Oklahoma State 20.1
9710 Noah Vonleh Freshman Indiana 18.7
101511 James Young Freshman Kentucky 18.7
115811 Khem Birch Junior UNLV 21.6
122413 P.J. Hairston D-League Tex Legends 21.3
134614 Jabari Brown Junior Missouri 21.3
144316 Patric Young Senior Florida 22.2
151318 Gary Harris Sophomore Michigan State 19.6
16NR19 Joe Jackson Senior Memphis 22.2
173321 Glenn Robinson Sophomore Michigan 20.3
182121 Adreian Payne Senior Michigan State 23.2
195123 Nick Johnson Junior Arizona 21.3
20223 Joel Embiid Freshman Kansas 20.1
21NR24 Chane Behanan Junior Louisville 21.6
221626 T.J. Warren Sophomore N.C. State 20.6
232226 Rodney Hood Sophomore Duke 21.5
241227 Tyler Ennis Freshman Syracuse 19.7
252927 Mitch McGary Sophomore Michigan 21.9
263631 Roscoe Smith Junior UNLV 23.0
275232 LaQuinton Ross Junior Ohio State 21.4
28NR33 Josh Hairston Senior Duke 22.3
294934 Dwight Powell Senior Stanford 22.7
305635 Jahii Carson Sophomore Arizona State 21.6
315735 Aaric Murray Senior Texas Southern 24.8
327236 Keith Appling Senior Michigan State 22.2
33NR36 David Wear Senior UCLA 23.6
344437 Johnny O'Bryant Junior LSU 20.9
35NR37 Cameron Clark Senior Oklahoma 22.6
36NR37 Travis Wear Senior UCLA 23.6
37NR38 Ian Miller Senior Florida State 22.6
387039 Jordan McRae Senior Tennessee 23.1
39NR40 Jamil Wilson Senior Marquette 23.4
401942 Jerami Grant Sophomore Syracuse 20.1
41NR44 Nate Lubick Senior Georgetown 22.9
42NR45 J.T. Terrell Senior USC 22.4
43NR51 Okaro White Senior Florida State 21.6
442752 Zach LaVine Freshman UCLA 19.1
45NR54 James Bell Senior Villanova 22.3
46NR55 Casey Prather Senior Florida 22.9
476255 Semaj Christon Sophomore Xavier 21.5
48NR56 Travis McKie Senior Wake Forest 21.5
492658 Jordan Adams Sophomore UCLA 19.8
503259 DeAndre Daniels Junior Connecticut 22.0
51NR62 Tarik Black Senior Kansas 22.4
52NR64 Trevor Releford Senior Alabama 22.3
53NR67 Rion Brown Senior Miami FL 22.6
54NR68 Terone Johnson Senior Purdue 22.8
55NR70 Gary Franklin Senior Baylor 23.4
56NR75 Bruce Ellington Senior South Carolina 22.7
57NR76 J.J. Moore Senior Rutgers 22.9
588278 Jakarr Sampson Sophomore St. John's 21.1
595778 Cory Jefferson Senior Baylor 23.3
60NR78 Geron Johnson Senior Memphis 21.6


So Who Are We Missing?

Coming out of high school, a number of players who are currently projected to be drafted were nowhere to be found in the various recruiting service rankings. Here's a look at those who would have went “undrafted” if the players were picked SOLELY off their RSCI ranking going into college.

DX-100RSCI PLAYER Class TEAM AGE
10NR Doug McDermott Senior Creighton 22.3
1480 Nik Stauskas Sophomore Michigan 20.5
20NR K.J. McDaniels Junior Clemson 21.2
25NR Elfrid Payton Junior La Lafayette 20.2
2885 Shabazz Napier Senior Connecticut 22.8
30NR Cleanthony Early Senior Wichita State 23.0
36133 Spencer Dinwiddie Junior Colorado 21.0
37NR Deonte Burton Senior Nevada 22.7
42148 C.J. Wilcox Senior Washington 23.3
47NR Jordan Clarkson Junior Missouri 21.9
48NR Russ Smith Senior Louisville 23.0
50NR Devyn Marble Senior Iowa 21.6
54NR Josh Huestis Senior Stanford 22.3
65142 Markel Brown Senior Oklahoma State 22.2
67123 Lamar Patterson Senior Pittsburgh 22.7
68127 Joe Harris Senior Virginia 22.6
69NR Fuquan Edwin Senior Seton Hall 22.6
7184 C.J. Fair Senior Syracuse 22.6
73115 Aaron Craft Senior Ohio State 23.2
8190 Markel Starks Senior Georgetown 23.2
89103 Alex Kirk Junior New Mexico 22.4
98131 Xavier Thames Senior San Diego State 23.2


No one saw Doug McDermott, K.J. McDaniels or Elfrid Payton developing into NBA prospects coming out of high school, let alone potential first round picks. Cleanthony Early, Deonte Burton, Jordan Clarkson and Russ Smith also developed into much better players than they were given credit for being in high school, which may potentially tell you something about their work ethic.

A player like Devyn Marble (the son of a NBA draft pick and college legend) may have been dinged by the recruiting service for simply being too young when they evaluated him. He entered college as a 17-year old, and thus was likely competing against players a year or two older than him in high school and AAU. He was ranked as a two to three star recruit, and held scholarship offers from Providence, Dayton, Detroit, Buffalo and Fairfield according to a Scout.com article in 2009.

Clarkson, Payton, McDaniels, and Dinwiddie were also young for their class…

Biggest “Overachievers”

Now that we've established a baseline, we can take a look at which players exceeded their RSCI ranking the most thus far, with where they are currently projected to be drafted, compared with how they were ranked coming out of high school.

Note: any player unranked in the RSCI was given a number of 151 for the sake of consistency. In reality, a player like Doug McDermott or K.J. McDaniels may have been ranked much lower.

DX-100 RSCI PLAYER CLASS TEAM AGECHANGE
10151 Doug McDermott Senior Creighton 22.3141
20151 K.J. McDaniels Junior Clemson 21.2 131
25151 Elfrid Payton Junior La Lafayette 20.2 126
30151 Cleanthony Early Senior Wichita State 23.0121
37151 Deonte Burton Senior Nevada 22.7114
42148 C.J. Wilcox Senior Washington 23.3106
47151 Jordan Clarkson Junior Missouri 21.9104
48151 Russ Smith Senior Louisville 23.0 103
50151 Devyn Marble Senior Iowa 21.6101
36133 Spencer Dinwiddie Junior Colorado 21.0 97
54151 Josh Huestis Senior Stanford 22.397
69151 Fuquan Edwin Senior Seton Hall 22.6 82
65142 Markel Brown Senior Oklahoma State 22.2 77
1480 Nik Stauskas Sophomore Michigan 20.5 66
68127 Joe Harris Senior Virginia 22.6 59
2885 Shabazz Napier Senior Connecticut 22.8 57
67123 Lamar Patterson Senior Pittsburgh 22.7 56
73115 Aaron Craft Senior Ohio State 23.2 42
98131 Xavier Thames Senior San Diego State 23.2 33
2658 Jordan Adams Sophomore UCLA 19.8 32
3259 DeAndre Daniels Junior Connecticut 22.0 27
2752 Zach LaVine Freshman UCLA 19.1 25
1942 Jerami Grant Sophomore Syracuse 20.1 23
223 Joel Embiid Freshman Kansas 20.1 21
5778 Cory Jefferson Senior Baylor 23.3 21
1227 Tyler Ennis Freshman Syracuse 19.7 15
89103 Alex Kirk Junior New Mexico 22.4 14
7184 C.J. Fair Senior Syracuse 22.6 13
1626 T.J. Warren Sophomore N.C. State 20.6 10
8190 Markel Starks Senior Georgetown 23.2 9
1318 Gary Harris Sophomore Michigan State 19.6 5
2226 Rodney Hood Sophomore Duke 21.5 4
69 Marcus Smart Sophomore Oklahoma State 20.1 3
710 Noah Vonleh Freshman Indiana 18.7 3
35 Jabari Parker Freshman Duke 19.1 2
11 Andrew Wiggins Freshman Kansas 19.2 0
2121 Adreian Payne Senior Michigan State 23.2 0
42 Julius Randle Freshman Kentucky 19.4 -2
2927 Mitch McGary Sophomore Michigan 21.9 -2
1511 James Young Freshman Kentucky 18.7 -4
8278 Jakarr Sampson Sophomore St. John's 21.1 -4
3631 Roscoe Smith Junior UNLV 23.0 -5
93 Aaron Gordon Freshman Arizona 18.6 -6
4437 Johnny O'Bryant Junior LSU 20.9 -7
6255 Semaj Christon Sophomore Xavier 21.5 -7
2413 P.J. Hairston D-League Tex Legends 21.3 -11
3321 Glenn Robinson Sophomore Michigan 20.3 -12
173 Kyle Anderson Sophomore UCLA 20.6 -14
4934 Dwight Powell Senior Stanford 22.7 -15
5232 LaQuinton Ross Junior Ohio State 21.4 -20
5635 Jahii Carson Sophomore Arizona State 21.6 -21
5735 Aaric Murray Senior Texas Southern 24.8-22
10178 [url=Geron Johnson Senior Memphis 21.6 -23
10176 J.J. Moore Senior Rutgers 22.9 -25
10175 Bruce Ellington Senior South Carolina 22.7 -26
4316 Patric Young Senior Florida 22.2 -27
5123 Nick Johnson Junior Arizona 21.3 -28
354 Isaiah Austin Sophomore Baylor 20.5 -31
7039 Jordan McRae Senior Tennessee 23.1 -31
10170 Gary Franklin Senior Baylor 23.4-31
4614 Jabari Brown Junior Missouri 21.3 -32
10168 Terone Johnson Senior Purdue 22.8 -33
10167 Rion Brown Senior Miami FL 22.6 -34
7236 Keith Appling Senior Michigan State 22.2 -36
10164 Trevor Releford Senior Alabama 22.3-37
10162 Tarik Black Senior Kansas 22.4-39
10156 Travis McKie Senior Wake Forest 21.5 -45
10155 Casey Prather Senior Florida 22.9 -46
5811 Khem Birch Junior UNLV 21.6 -47
10154 James Bell Senior Villanova 22.3 -47
10151 Okaro White Senior Florida State 21.6 -50
596 James McAdoo Junior North Carolina 21.3 -53
10145 J.T. Terrell Senior USC 22.4-56
10144 Nate Lubick Senior Georgetown 22.9 -57
10140 Jamil Wilson Senior Marquette 23.4-61
10138 Ian Miller Senior Florida State 22.6 -63
10137 Cameron Clark Senior Oklahoma 22.6 -64
10137 Travis Wear Senior UCLA 23.6 -64
10136 David Wear Senior UCLA 23.6 -65
10133 Josh Hairston Senior Duke 22.3 -68
10124 Chane Behanan Junior Louisville 21.6 -77
10119 Joe Jackson Senior Memphis 22.2-82


It's no surprise to see the high school no-names like McDermott, McDaniels and Payton at the top of this list, but it's interesting to see the type of jump guys like C.J. Wilcox, Spencer Dinwiddie and Nik Stauskas were able to make. Those three were not complete unknowns, but were in fact simply ranked at the bottom of RSCI lists.

It's always interesting to see players like Joel Embiid, who shot up recruiting boards very late in his high school career, but in hindsight could have been propelled much higher even. Jordan Adams, Zach Lavine, Jerami Grant and Tyler Ennis all were also able to improve much more quickly than initially thought.

Biggest “Underachievers”

Which players underperformed their RSCI ranking the most thus far, with where they are currently projected to be drafted, compared with how they were ranked coming out of high school?

Note: any player unranked in the DraftExpress Top-100 Prospects was given a number of 101 for the sake of consistency. In reality, a player like Josh Hairston or David Wear would be ranked much lower.

DX-100 RSCI PLAYER CLASS TEAM AGECHANGE
10119 Joe Jackson Senior Memphis 22.2-82
10124 Chane Behanan Junior Louisville 21.6 -77
10133 Josh Hairston Senior Duke 22.3 -68
10136 David Wear Senior UCLA 23.6 -65
10137 Cameron Clark Senior Oklahoma 22.6 -64
10137 Travis Wear Senior UCLA 23.6 -64
10138 Ian Miller Senior Florida State 22.6 -63
10140 Jamil Wilson Senior Marquette 23.4-61
10144 Nate Lubick Senior Georgetown 22.9 -57
10145 J.T. Terrell Senior USC 22.4-56
596 James McAdoo Junior North Carolina 21.3 -53
10151 Okaro White Senior Florida State 21.6 -50
5811 Khem Birch Junior UNLV 21.6 -47
10154 James Bell Senior Villanova 22.3 -47
10155 Casey Prather Senior Florida 22.9 -46
10156 Travis McKie Senior Wake Forest 21.5 -45
10162 Tarik Black Senior Kansas 22.4-39
10164 Trevor Releford Senior Alabama 22.3-37
7236 Keith Appling Senior Michigan State 22.2 -36
10167 Rion Brown Senior Miami FL 22.6 -34
10168 Terone Johnson Senior Purdue 22.8 -33
4614 Jabari Brown Junior Missouri 21.3 -32
354 Isaiah Austin Sophomore Baylor 20.5 -31
7039 Jordan McRae Senior Tennessee 23.1 -31
10170 Gary Franklin Senior Baylor 23.4-31
5123 Nick Johnson Junior Arizona 21.3 -28
4316 Patric Young Senior Florida 22.2 -27
10175 Bruce Ellington Senior South Carolina 22.7 -26
10176 J.J. Moore Senior Rutgers 22.9 -25
10178 Geron Johnson Senior Memphis 21.6 -23
5735 Aaric Murray Senior Texas Southern 24.8-22
5635 Jahii Carson Sophomore Arizona State 21.6 -21
5232 LaQuinton Ross Junior Ohio State 21.4 -20
4934 Dwight Powell Senior Stanford 22.7 -15
173 Kyle Anderson Sophomore UCLA 20.6 -14
3321 Glenn Robinson Sophomore Michigan 20.3 -12
2413 P.J. Hairston D-League Tex Legends 21.3 -11
4437 Johnny O'Bryant Junior LSU 20.9 -7
6255 Semaj Christon Sophomore Xavier 21.5 -7
93 Aaron Gordon Freshman Arizona 18.6 -6
3631 Roscoe Smith Junior UNLV 23.0 -5
1511 James Young Freshman Kentucky 18.7 -4
8278 Jakarr Sampson Sophomore St. John's 21.1 -4
42 Julius Randle Freshman Kentucky 19.4 -2
2927 Mitch McGary Sophomore Michigan 21.9 -2
11 Andrew Wiggins Freshman Kansas 19.2 0
2121 Adreian Payne Senior Michigan State 23.2 0
35 Jabari Parker Freshman Duke 19.1 2
69 Marcus Smart Sophomore Oklahoma State 20.1 3
710 Noah Vonleh Freshman Indiana 18.7 3
2226 Rodney Hood Sophomore Duke 21.5 4
1318 Gary Harris Sophomore Michigan State 19.6 5
1626 T.J. Warren Sophomore N.C. State 20.6 10
1227 Tyler Ennis Freshman Syracuse 19.7 15
223 Joel Embiid Freshman Kansas 20.1 21
5778 Cory Jefferson Senior Baylor 23.3 21
1942 Jerami Grant Sophomore Syracuse 20.1 23
2752 Zach LaVine Freshman UCLA 19.1 25
3259 DeAndre Daniels Junior Connecticut 22.0 27
2658 Jordan Adams Sophomore UCLA 19.8 32


To follow up on our note from earlier on highly ranked RSCI prospects who ended up being drafted in the second round (or not at all), we can point to a number of former Top-25 recruits:

Isaiah Austin (#4 RSCI 2012) is one NBA teams will be studying closely, in an attempt to decipher whether he underachieved in college simply due to physical immaturity that might be corrected in time with patience and a better strength program?

James McAdoo (#6 RSCI 2011) is a baffling case, as he likely would have been drafted in the lottery had he left after his freshman season, but instead might not get picked at all following his junior year. Was he simply misevaluated, or does he just need a change of scenery to fulfill the massive potential he was projected to have as a high school recruit?

The same questions can be asked of Joe Jackson (#19 RSCI 2010), Khem Birch (#11 RSCI 2011), Jabari Brown (#14 RSCI 2011), and to a lesser extent, Patric Young (#16 RSCI 2010). Is there anything worth salvaging here, and should they possibly be looked at in a different light based on what recruiting services thought of them just a few years ago?

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