Advanced Draft History Section
Breaking Down the NBA Draft by Positions and Draft Class
Now that we have almost a complete picture of who is in and out of this year's draft, we can more accurately assess what lies ahead of us over the next 60 days leading up to June 26th. With that in mind, we've ranked the top 115 NBA prospects and sorted them by position, 20 points guards, 20 shooting guards, 20 small forwards, 30 power forwards, and 25 centers--reflecting the depth of each position in this class.
It's easy to estimate that the top three players from each position will land in the lottery and the top six will make up the first round, but history shows us that that's not always quite the case. How will this year's obscenely deep center class affect the way teams approach the draft on June 26th?
Methodology:- The averages stated below reflect the number of lottery and first round picks each position has produced over the last 10 years, compared with how things currently stand on our 2008 mock draft. This is just an initial projection obviously, as things will still change quite a bit after the NBA pre-draft camp and private workouts are conducted.
As always, when attempting to project a players position for the next level, we usually consider the position that player will likely defend on the floor, and try to stay within reason of what that player showed during their time in college.
Point Guards
10 Year Average: Lotto: 2.2, First Round: 5.7
2008 Projection: Lotto: 4, First Round: 5
Darren Collisons surprising last-minute decision to return to school takes one likely first round point guard out of the picture here, but this is still a pretty decent class of playmakers, especially after last years dud of a group (so far). The top three players all look like solid starters at the very least, with Rose having franchise building potential and Bayless looking like a possible 20 point per game scorer down the road as well. Russell Westbrook may be considered more of a combo guard by some teams, but still looks like a solid late lotto to mid-first pick, while two other hybrid guards in Mario Chalmers and Lester Hudson will try to battle their way into the first round. Ty Lawson is holding on for dear life at this point, and could lead an exodus of players returning to school once the reality regarding the depth of this draft sets in. Whats interesting is that you wont find a single senior in this group until all the way down at 14, Sean Singletary, who will probably be happy to get drafted at this point.
Points Guards | Ranking | Name | Age | Height | Team |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Derrick Rose | 19 years old | 6' 3 | Memphis |
2 | Jerryd Bayless | 19 years old | 6' 3 | Arizona |
3 | D.J. Augustin | 20 years old | 5' 11 | Texas |
4 | Russell Westbrook | 19 years old | 6' 3 | UCLA |
5 | Ty Lawson | 20 years old | 5' 11 | North Carolina |
6 | Mario Chalmers | 21 years old | 6' 2 | Kansas |
7 | Lester Hudson | 23 years old | 6' 3 | Tenn. Martin |
8 | Jamont Gordon | 21 years old | 6' 3 | Mississippi St. |
9 | Rodrigue Beaubois | 20 years old | 6' 2 | Cholet |
10 | Jeremy Pargo | 22 years old | 6' 2 | Gonzaga |
11 | Goran Dragic | 21 years old | 6' 4 | Union Olimpija Ljubljana |
12 | Anton Ponkrashov | 22 years old | 6' 7 | Khimki |
13 | Mantas Kalnietis | 21 years old | 6' 5 | Zalgiris Kaunas |
14 | Sean Singletary | 22 years old | 6' 0 | Virginia |
15 | Jamar Butler | 22 years old | 6' 2 | Ohio State |
16 | Mike Green | 22 years old | 6' 1 | Butler |
17 | George Tsintsadze | 22 years old | 6' 4 | Rock Tartu |
18 | Bo McCalebb | 22 years old | 6' 0 | New Orleans |
19 | Brian Roberts | 22 years old | 6' 2 | Dayton |
20 | Stefhon Hannah | ? Years old | 6' 1 | Missouri |
Shooting Guards
10 Year Average: Lotto: 2.6, First Round: 6.6
2008 Projection: Lotto: 2, First Round: 4
The shooting guard spot offers up a lot more question marks than answers at this point, continuing a trend weve seen over the past few years of extremely weak crops of 2-guards at the top end of recent drafts. Last years draft might not produce a single substantial starter at this position, and 2006 was fairly underwhelming as well beyond Brandon Roy. The 2005 first rounds best shooting guard? Probably Rashad McCants, which isnt saying too much Two freshmen shooting guards this year look certain to be selected in the top 10, but no one is quite sure if theyll indeed end up spending most of their minutes at that position, which is part of the problem. There is a lot more age and experience after that, and we should actually see a nice group of role players and specialists emerge from this crop. Things are pretty wide open in the 3-7 slots of the rankings, and thus we might see all of the players here participate at the Orlando Pre-Draft camp, with there being plenty of room to move up into the first round based on team needs alone if someone is able to string together a strong showing.
Shooting Guards | Ranking | Name | Age | Height | Team |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | O.J. Mayo | 20 years old | 6' 5 | USC |
2 | Eric Gordon | 19 years old | 6' 3 | Indiana |
3 | Chris Douglas-Roberts | 21 years old | 6' 7 | Memphis |
4 | Courtney Lee | 22 years old | 6' 5 | Western Kentucky |
5 | Shan Foster | 21 years old | 6' 6 | Vanderbilt |
6 | J.R. Giddens | 23 years old | 6' 5 | New Mexico |
7 | Wayne Ellington | 20 years old | 6' 5 | North Carolina |
8 | Kyle Weaver | 22 years old | 6' 6 | Washington State |
9 | Sonny Weems | 21 years old | 6' 6 | Arkansas |
10 | Antonio Anderson | 22 years old | 6' 6 | Memphis |
11 | Richard Roby | 22 years old | 6' 5 | Colorado |
12 | Jerel McNeal | 20 years old | 6' 3 | Marquette |
13 | DeMarcus Nelson | 22 years old | 6' 4 | Duke |
14 | Reggie Williams | ? Years old | 6' 5 | VMI |
15 | Bryce Taylor | 21 years old | 6' 5 | Oregon |
16 | Joe Crawford | 21 years old | 6' 4 | Kentucky |
17 | Mark Tyndale | 22 years old | 6' 5 | Temple |
18 | Chris Lofton | 22 years old | 6' 2 | Tennessee |
19 | Robert Vaden | 23 years old | 6' 5 | UAB |
20 | Marcelus Kemp | 23 years old | 6' 5 | Nevada |
Small Forwards
10 Year Average: Lotto: 2.8, First Round: 5.7
2008 Projection: Lotto: 3, First Round: 7
This appears to be a solid class of small forwards, particularly when you consider the size and versatility most of the prospects here bring to the table, which is what many teams covet from that position. There is a good mix of outside shooters (Budinger, Rush), athletes (Batum, Walker), and potential (Greene, Alexander), as well as various combinations. The two top international prospects in this draft come from here, although they probably couldnt be any different from each other. Things get dicey pretty quickly towards the end of this list.
Small Forwards | Ranking | Name | Age | Height | Team |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Danilo Gallinari | 19 years old | 6' 9 | Armani Jeans Milano |
2 | Donte Greene | 20 years old | 6' 10 | Syracuse |
3 | Chase Budinger | 20 years old | 6' 7 | Arizona |
4 | Nicolas Batum | 19 years old | 6' 8 | Le Mans Sarthe Basket |
5 | Joe Alexander | 21 years old | 6' 8 | West Virginia |
6 | Brandon Rush | 22 years old | 6' 7 | Kansas |
7 | Omri Casspi | 19 years old | 6' 8 | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
8 | Bill Walker | 20 years old | 6' 6 | Kansas State |
9 | Pat Calathes | 22 years old | 6' 10 | Saint Joseph's |
10 | Danny Green | 20 years old | 6' 6 | North Carolina |
11 | Gary Forbes | 23 years old | 6' 7 | Massachusetts |
12 | Keith Brumbaugh | 22 years old | 6' 8 | Oklahoma State |
13 | Joe Ingles | 20 years old | 6' 8 | South Dragons (NBL) |
14 | Malik Hairston | 21 years old | 6' 6 | Oregon |
15 | Lee Cummard | 23 Years old | 6' 7 | BYU |
16 | Manuchar Markoishvili | 21 years old | 6' 6 | BC Kyiv |
17 | Marcus Dove | 22 years old | 6' 9 | Oklahoma State |
18 | Quan Prowell | 23 years old | 6' 8 | Auburn |
19 | Gavin Grant | 23 years old | 6' 8 | N.C. State |
20 | Deron Washington | 22 years old | 6' 7 | Virginia Tech |
Power Forwards
10 Year Average: Lotto: 3.7, First Round: 6.6
2008 Projection: Lotto: 3, First Round: 6
Potential is the operative word here, with three freshman at the top, then one sophomore, followed by an 18 year old international player. Uncertainty is definitely another theme here as well. Michael Beasley looks like a franchise-changing talent on first glance, as long as he is able to stay grounded and not resort back to the way he often played in high school. Anthony Randolph is one of the bigger wildcards in this draft, as his physical tools and talent are off the charts, but there are also many questions about how ready he is to handle things on and off the court. Its not easy to find much of a consensus around Kevin Love at this point either. Darrell Arthur is largely an enigma himself, while Serge Ibaka is probably 2-3 years away from stepping on an NBA floor, and might very well still pull out of the draft altogether in June. J.J. Hickson? Davon Jefferson? Good luck finding two scouts with the same opinions here either. The point here is, there is a lot still to be decided about how these players rank, and its not out of the question that someone ends up with a huge bust very early or a huge steal drafting late.
Power Forwards | Ranking | Name | Age | Height | Team |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Michael Beasley | 19 years old | 6' 9 | Kansas State |
2 | Kevin Love | 19 years old | 6' 9 | UCLA |
3 | Anthony Randolph | 18 years old | 6' 11 | LSU |
4 | Darrell Arthur | 20 years old | 6' 9 | Kansas |
5 | Serge Ibaka | 18 years old | 6' 10 | CB L'Hospitalet |
6 | Richard Hendrix | 21 years old | 6' 8 | Alabama |
7 | J.J. Hickson | 19 years old | 6' 9 | N.C. State |
8 | Ryan Anderson | 19 years old | 6' 10 | California |
9 | Davon Jefferson | 21 years old | 6' 8 | USC |
10 | D.J. White | 21 years old | 6' 9 | Indiana |
11 | Joey Dorsey | 24 years old | 6' 9 | Memphis |
12 | James Gist | 21 years old | 6' 8 | Maryland |
13 | Maarty Leunen | 22 years old | 6' 9 | Oregon |
14 | Josh Duncan | 21 years old | 6' 9 | Xavier |
15 | Derrick Caracter | 19 years old | 6' 9 | Louisville |
16 | Novica Velickovic | 21 years old | 6' 9 | KK Partizan Belgrade |
17 | Tadija Dragicevic | 22 years old | 6' 9 | BC Red Star Belgrade |
18 | Luc Richard Mbah A Moute | 21 years old | 6' 7 | UCLA |
19 | Robert Dozier | 22 years old | 6' 10 | Memphis |
20 | James Mays | 22 years old | 6' 9 | Clemson |
21 | Darnell Jackson | 22 years old | 6' 8 | Kansas |
22 | Kentrell Gransberry | 22 years old | 6' 9 | South Florida |
23 | Will Daniels | 22 years old | 6' 8 | Rhode Island |
24 | Othello Hunter | 21 years old | 6' 8 | Ohio State |
25 | Darian Townes | 23 years old | 6' 10 | Arkansas |
26 | Frank Elegar | 21 years old | 6' 9 | Drexel |
27 | Leo Lyons | 20 years old | 6' 9 | Missouri |
28 | Patrick Ewing Jr | 23 years old | 6' 9 | Georgetown |
29 | Charles Rhodes | 22 years old | 6' 8 | Mississippi St. |
30 | Kyle Hines | 21 years old | 6' 6 | UNC Greensboro |
Centers
10 Year Average: Lotto: 2.8, First Round: 4.3
2008 Projection: Lotto: 2, First Round: 9
Fewer centers get drafted in the first round each year compared with any other position on average, but if early indications mean anything, things are going to be very different this time around. No less than 9 centers are currently projected to be drafted in the first round, which would be an all-time high over the last 10 years. Over the last five years in fact, no more than four centers were ever drafted in the first round in a single year, which has led many coaches and organizations to redefine the way they think about the center position. What is odd about the 2008 center crop is that there isnt anything even remotely resembling a sure thing outside of the consensus #1 player Brook Lopezwe instead find a group of incredibly young, raw, immature, inexperienced players, often showing great physical tools and talent, but also with considerable flaws. Again, youd be hard pressed to find two teams out of the 30 out there that would rank the top 17 centers on our board in the exact same orderbeauty is in the eye of the beholder as they say. Almost anyone can slip into the top-20, and a significant portion of them will slide into the second round, just because of the sheer numbers involved. Luckily, most of the underclassmen/internationals are still holding onto their collegiate eligibility/draft cards. It will be fascinating to see how many will end up playing at the Orlando pre-draft camp, and workouts should play a pretty strong role in how things play out. When it's all said and done, this might be a great year for a team drafting in the bottom half of the first round to swing for the fences and take a chance on the project big guy they like the most, since it could really pay off for them down the road. As we all know, 7-footers don't grow on trees these days.
Centers | Ranking | Name | Age | Height | Team |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brook Lopez | 20 years old | 7' 0 | Stanford |
2 | DeAndre Jordan | 19 years old | 7' 0 | Texas A&M |
3 | JaVale McGee | 20 years old | 7' 0 | Nevada |
4 | Roy Hibbert | 21 years old | 7' 2 | Georgetown |
5 | Kosta Koufos | 19 years old | 7' 1 | Ohio State |
6 | Marreese Speights | 20 years old | 6' 10 | Florida |
7 | Alexis Ajinca | 19 years old | 7' 1 | Hyeres-Toulon |
8 | Ante Tomic | 21 years old | 7' 2 | KK Zagreb |
9 | Robin Lopez | 20 years old | 7' 0 | Stanford |
10 | Jason Thompson | 21 years old | 6' 11 | Rider |
11 | DeVon Hardin | 21 years old | 6' 11 | California |
12 | Nathan Jawai | 21 years old | 6' 10 | Cairns Taipans |
13 | Nikola Pekovic | 22 years old | 6' 11 | KK Partizan Belgrade |
14 | Omer Asik | 21 years old | 6' 11 | Fenerbahce Ulker |
15 | Trent Plaisted | 21 years old | 6' 11 | BYU |
16 | Semih Erden | 21 years old | 7' 1 | Fenerbahce Ulker |
17 | John Riek | 18 years old | 7' 2 | Winchendon |
18 | Peja Samardziski | 22 years old | 7' 0 | KK FMP Zeleznik |
19 | David Padgett | 23 years old | 6' 11 | Louisville |
20 | Sasha Kaun | 22 years old | 6' 11 | Kansas |
21 | Aleks Maric | 23 years old | 6' 11 | Nebraska |
22 | Longar Longar | 25 years old | 6' 11 | Oklahoma |
23 | C.J. Giles | 22 years old | 6' 10 | Oregon State |
24 | Giorgi Shermadini | 19 years old | 7' 1 | Maccabi Tblisi |
25 | Brian Butch | 23 years old | 6' 11 | Wisconsin |
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